Today Market Madness

It's not like as I expected yesterday, today the market moves higher nearly touches +200 point in the afternoon. Even JP Morgan's earning release plunged 53% compared to the same period on the last year. But the earning declined is less then analysts estimated. However it does not mean that financial problems have been over. Capital market remains under stress. JPMorgan has posted more than $12 billion of writedowns, losses and credit provisions on mortgage-tainted assets through the second quarter, a fraction of the $43 billion at Citigroup Inc., which reports earnings tomorrow. Coca Cola (KO) also reported its earning slumped 23% but beats analysts estimated. If 40-cent impairment charge excluded, earnings would have hit $1.01 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet had estimated earnings of 95 cents a share. How could we say that profit fell 53% and 23% are well?

While oil prices have been falling for three straight days to down below $130 for the first time since June, it also drives the market bullish sentiment. Additionally, As result of Naked short Policy from SEC, it also gives more pressures to short seller and makes short seller are getting squeeze. But peoples like John Najarian still have an alternative way to short market over buying put options contract.

As many analyst said I think the bull market is just a temporary contraction as the market reaction to currently oversold condition, let's see on the S&P 500's weekly chart below:


Now, let's look the AAII Bull Ratio below. It indicates that bullish sentiment is still worse.


Volatility index below also indicates that the market is not over panic yet compared to March high.


Finally, while the market pops I consider to open short position on the JP. Morgan (JPM), let's see the chart below:



Related Posts :

Intraday Review: Stocks Soar on Drop in Oil

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

Goldman is reinstating coverage on Best Buy (BBY) at SELL

Goldman sees a fading on Tax Rebates. He said, "It's not quite ready to pour its money into electronics. We are removing the NR designation on BBY and have a Sell rating with a $42 for 12 month price target. This is more of a sector-relative call than an absolute call; we see modest upside to our 12-month price target, but less than for most other names in our sector".

Related Posts :

Three Analysts Lowered Rating on eBay (EBAY)
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

Three Analysts Lowered Rating on eBay (EBAY)

According to Eric Savitz's Article, A trio of analysts lowered ratings on the eBay Stock:

1. Goldman Sachs analyst James Mitchell cut his rating on the stock to Neutral from Buy. He writes this morning that the lesson from the weak GMV in the quarter is that “eBay’s business is too large and complex to rapidly reinvigorate, especially in a challenging macro climate, causing consumers to trade down.” He chopped his price target on the stock to $30, from $38.
   
   
2. American Technology Research analyst Tim Boyd dropped his rating to Sell from Neutral; his price target is now $20, down from $35. He notes that GMV growth of 8% year-over-year is 400 basis points lower than the previous quarter. He says there were two reasons for the “horrid” growth: deteriorating consumer spending patterns reduced conversion rates and average selling prices, and growth in the Motors segment “fell off a cliff.” Boyd writes that he wonders if a 0% growth quarter, or even a negative growth quarter, could be coming soon. “In this market environment, cheap stocks can and will get cheaper in a hurry if they don’t deliver good news,” he writes.
   
   
3. Thomas Weisel’s Christa Quarles cut her rating on the stock to Market Weight, from Overweight. “Unfortunately, we didn’t see an improvement in the underlying fundamentals at eBay and conclude that shifting the purchase behavior of the typical eBay consumer will take at least 12-18 months,” she wrote in a note this morning. “While we applaud the aggressive stance that the relatively new eBay management team is taking with regard to seller pricing and buyer experience, we believe the company faces an uphill battle in trying to communicate these changes and alter behavior of its buyers.”

Today so far, eBay shares have tumbled $4.30, or 15.3%, to $23.80.

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

Google, Inc. (GOOG)'s Earning Preview

The Material below is summarized from TheFlyOnTheWall's Article:

The Analysts consensus estimate is $4.74 for EPS and $3.87B for revenue, according to First Call. The whisper number is $4.95, according to EarningsWhisper.com.

Citigroup's Mark Mahaney expects Google to provide updates on search-ad trends, such as pricing and click-through rates, along with its earnings announcement. Mahaney also expects updates on the company's international business, which accounted for 51% of earnings in Q1 and 48% in Q4'07.

He believes this significant international exposure has been and can continue to be a substantial driver of top-line growth. Mahaney also expect updates on Google's integration of DoubleClick, the display advertising company it acquired this year for $3.1B; monetization plans for YouTube, Google Images, Google Finance and Google Video; the company's Android mobile platform and its mobile search business, and any improvement in monetization of MySpace deal. "We view mobile Internet advertising as one of Google's biggest long-term opportunities," Mahaney said.

While Oppenheimer expects an in-line Q2, it believes there is high likelihood that US paid clicks weakened in Q2, offset by robust International clicks. Moreover, the firm said investors should assume that Google's growth will continue to decelerate as the US economy slows into Q4 and International slows in 2009.

Related Posts :

Google and IBM Estimation Earning Report in the Next Week

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

Keystone Pipeline Project Makes COP, TRP, and VLO Become Attractive Stocks

Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips (COP) is the third largest oil company in the US, and along with TransCanada (TRP) will spend around $5.2 billion on the Keystone pipeline to transport 590,000 barrels per day by 2009 across the continental US to the Midwest refineries.

The first phase of the Keystone pipeline will move around 530,000 barrels a day of Alberta sands crude to the US Midwest by 2009, is now under construction, and will eventually extend from Illinois west to Nebraska, merging the two phases to head south. The capacity addition would facilitate the processing of output from the Alberta oil- sands by Gulf Coast refiners, who account of around half of the US refining capacity. The second phase would follow by around 2012.

COP will release its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, July 23, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The news release will be issued through Business Wire.
A follow-up conference call with Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva and Investor Relations General Manager Gary Russell will be held Wednesday, July 23, at 11 a.m. Eastern.

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), the largest refiner in the US said that it had agreed to be a potential shipper. The new line will also cut down transportation time by around 15-20 days.
The project will allow TransCanada's to boost its earnings through increased exposure to oil, and decided to go ahead with the project when customers committed to ship 300,000 barrels per day on the line across an 18-year period.

I present Alan Brochstein’s criteria for stocks screening below:

• Dividend Yield in excess of 2% (which is now slightly below that of the S&P 500)
• Payout ratio below 67% - makes sure they aren't losing financial flexiblity (safety)
• 5% growth over the past three years in earnings per share, revenue per share and dividends per share (growth)
• Return on Capital in excess of 10% (safety)
• Earnings estimates revisions over past 12 weeks no worse than -10% (safety)
• PE ratio no more than 50% above 5yr median (safety)
• Total Debt to Capital below 35% (safety)
• Years of consecutive dividend payments is at least 10 (safety)

The goal of these criteria is to find companies that are growing, not too expensive and not too financially risky. The stocks that currently meet these parameters are in the table below:

Source: Alan Brochstein Analytical Services

Related Posts :

A Big Decline in Oil Causes the Market Rebound
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners is a Buy !

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

IndyMac Bancorp (IMB) Filling for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

IndyMac has filled for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy since July 8 and it was seized by federal regulators on July 11, after suffering one of the biggest bank closures in US history, as the troubled US mortgage industry struggles to stem further meltdown. IndyMac's home-equity credit lines were frozen by the Fed on July 13.

The collapse is expected to cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) between $4bn and $8bn, is the biggest banking failure since the American Savings & Loan Association folded in 1988. The only other larger collapse was the Illinois National Bank, which folded with $40bn of assets, in 1984.

Here is a latest news from AP this morning :

IndyMac Customers Want Out

In a scene reminisicent of the Great Depression, frantic bank customers wait in line to pull funds out of an IndyMac branch Tuesday. On Friday, the bank became the second-largest financial institution to close in U.S. history.


The Office of Thrift Supervision shut down the California-based bank after it succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures. Control of its assets were transferred to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.


The FDIC insures deposits up to $100,000 per account holder, and retirement accounts up to $250,000. IndyMac customers with accounts exceeding those amounts could begin making appointments to file a claim with the FDIC on Monday. The agency said it would pay unsecured depositors an advance dividend equal to half of the uninsured amount.


FDIC chief operating officer John Bovenzi, second from left, is IndyMac's new chief executive, brought in by the government to manage the failed bank. Reopening the bank on Monday, Bovenzi sought to assure customers and consumers that bank failures have been rare in the past, and that even if more banks do fail, the government has enough in reserve.


FDIC spokesman David Barr, stationed outside IndyMac's headquarters, said it may take several years before the agency completely resolves the thrift's collapse and addresses customer claims. Source: AP

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.