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Friday, November 7, 2008

Earnings Preview: Starbucks

People walk past a Starbucks store in New York July 3, 2008.
Starbucks Corp said on Tuesday it plans to close 600 underperforming
U.S. stores and cut up to 12,000 full- and part-time positions,
as it copes with an economic downturn and increasing competition.
REUTERS/Chip East (UNITED STATES)

SeekingAlpha
By Theflyonthewall
Friday, November 7, 2008

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is expected to report Q4 earnings after market close Monday, Nov. 10, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET.

Guidance

Analysts are looking for a profit of 13c on revenue of $2.58B. The consensus range is 10c to 17c for EPS, and revenue of $2.54B to $2.62B, according to First Call. In July, the company forecast FY08 EPS in the mid-70c range vs. First Call consensus of 75c on revenue growth of approximately 11%. At the same time, the company forecast FY09 EPS 90c to $1.00 vs. First Call consensus of 87c.

Analyst Views

Despite recent initiatives to create more value for consumers such as prepaid cards and a "surprise and delight" program, the Street still has relatively low expectations for the coffee retailer.

At October's 2008 Leadership Conference, CEO Howard Schultz said that while the downturn in consumer confidence continued in Q4, the company did see a "slight improvement" in the first weeks of Q2 which may suggest Starbucks may have "hit bottom in terms of negative transactions" in Q4. While the company expected Q4 same-store sales relatively stable with Q3 trends, Starbucks did experience deterioration in Q4; Schultz said October SSS improved slightly over Q4.

Oppenheimer predicts that Starbucks will be able to increase its EPS 20% or more over the next several years as the company's bottom line benefits from store closings and lower commodity costs.

On November 6, the company announced that Troy Alstead, senior VP of Global Finance, will succeed current CFO Pete Bocian at the end of the month.

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GM & Ford are running out of cash as liquidity worsens

GM saw its October vehicle sales drop 45%.
Photo courtesy of Associated Press

General Motors Corp. reported a net loss of $2.54 billion while Ford Motor Co. reported a third-quarter net loss of $129 million.

Revenue at GM for the third quarter was $37.9 billion, down from $43.7 billion in the year-ago quarter, reflecting sales declines across the industry driven by unstable market conditions, instability in the credit markets and dramatic retraction in consumer demand, especially in North America and Europe.

While Ford's operating loss, excluding items, widened to $3 billion or $1.31 a share, in the third quarter, from $24 million a year earlier. The quarter's net loss of $129 million included a $2.3 billion gain mostly related to writing off retiree health costs being transferred to a union-run trust. Revenue in the third quarter was $32.1 billion, down $9 billion from the year-earlier period, as revenue in the automotive business dropped 23% to $27.8 billion.

Much of the outflow in the third quarter related to lower production volume as the auto maker idled plants and laid off workers to respond to the drop in consumer demand, especially for pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Critically, Ford also has available credit lines of $10.7 billion to supplement its gross cash of $18.9 billion at the end of the third quarter. Ford doesn't expect to tap the loan revolvers, noting that the company will continue to aggressively reduce costs and manage cash with discipline.

More worrisome than the crippling losses was the greater-than-expected cash burn at each company. Ford plowed through $7.7 billion, seeing its liquidity position plummet to $18.9 billion. GM burned $6.9 billion and declared that its cash position at $16.2 billion wasn't enough to keep the company going through next year without immediate government intervention.

The companies' poor earnings make it clear Ford and GM are running out of money to finance their Michigan-based businesses, with GM the sicker of the two. Even if GM implements the planned operating actions that are substantially within its control, GM's estimated liquidity during the remainder of 2008 will approach the minimum amount necessary to operate its business.

The weakness has expanded around the globe in ways that auto makers hadn't anticipated, further reducing optimism about the prospects for U.S. auto makers. Until the latest quarter, international sales had helped offset weakness at home. Now, a slew of foreign auto makers have reported disappointing earnings and weak outlooks as the global scenario deteriorates.

President-elect Barack Obama, in a press conference, called for the current administration to speed up the assistance Congress already has enacted to help the auto sector. "The auto industry is the backbone of American manufacturing and a critical part of our attempt to reduce our dependence on foreign oil," he said.

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Obama's first news conference after elected as president


President-elect Barack Obama addresses questions from the media
during his first press conference following his election victory
in Chicago, November 7, 2008 02:52 pm EST.
Video by Bloomberg

Reuters
Friday November 7, 2008 4:15pm EST

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Friday the United States was facing one of its greatest economic challenges and vowed to confront the crisis head-on as soon as he takes office in January.

Investors are awaiting Obama's choice of Treasury secretary who will spearhead economic recovery, but Obama made clear he would not be rushed into making hasty appointments.

"I want to move with all deliberate haste, but I want to emphasize deliberate as well as haste," he said.

At his first news conference since being elected on Tuesday, Obama noted the latest Labor Department figures which showed that U.S. unemployment hit a 14-year-high in October after employers slashed jobs by an unexpectedly steep 240,000.

"We are facing the greatest economic challenge of our lifetime and we're going to have to act swiftly to resolve it," Obama said, as his team of economic advisers, who include businessmen and economists, stood in a line behind him.

The brief news conference in Chicago followed a meeting with his 17-member transition economic advisory board on how to tackle the worst economic crisis confronting the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Obama said he wanted the Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress to pass a second stimulus package as soon as possible to stabilize the economy, which analysts say may be in deep recession by the time he is inaugurated on January 20.

"We are going to need to see a stimulus package passed either before or after the inauguration. I want to see a stimulus package sooner rather than later."

With U.S. automakers also reporting billions in losses on Friday, Obama urged the Bush administration to accelerate a $25 billion retooling assistance plan already passed by Congress.

The automakers are lobbying for up to $50 billion to prevent a collapse that could cost over two million jobs.

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[Video]Charles Lemonides of Valueworks reaction on $4.2 Billion of GM losses

Bloomberg Video
November 7, 2008 11:47 am EST

Reaction with Charles Lemonides of Valueworks


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[Video]Outlook for Gold and Metals

Bloomberg Video
November 7, 2008 01:38 pm EST

Outlook for Gold and Metals - Interview with CEO Mark Cutifani.


ETFs/Stocks :
    SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (ETF) XME  26.70   0.00 (0.00%)
    SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD 72.48 +0.26 (0.36%)
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[Audio]Bloomberg's Levin: U.S. Automakers Are Essentially Bankrupt

Bloomberg on the economy
November 7, 2008

Listen/Download this podcast (format *.mp3)

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[Video] Microsoft Not Buying Yahoo

Bloomberg Video
November 7, 2008

According to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, "We've Moved On", Welcomes Partnership Talks; Nvidia Beats Forecasts.


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Goldman Sachs cut S&P 500 index's profit forecasts

David Kostin, who leads Goldman's New York-based portfolio strategy team, cut his 2008 S&P 500 profit forecast by 9.7 percent to $65 and his 2009 estimate by 9.3 percent to $68, citing slower U.S. economic growth and larger losses for banks and brokerages.

"The reduction incorporates a weaker economic outlook than previously assumed, greater estimated losses for the financial sector, and weak third-quarter earnings results and forward guidance," Kostin wrote in a note to clients.

$700 billion in credit losses and writedowns at financial firms worldwide is hurting the outlook for corporate profits. Companies in the U.S. stock benchmark are poised for the fifth consecutive quarter of falling earnings, the longest streak since the 2001 recession.

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How far the banks' key rates have fallen

Image courtesy of The Wall Street Journal


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HSBC is expected to report additional write-offs of nearly $4 bln

According to analysts' forecasts, HSBC, which reports its U.S. results on Monday, is expected to say that it will continue to incur substantial losses from bad debts in its U.S. mortgage business for some time. The bank is reducing its exposure to the U.S. mortgage market and is not writing any new mortgage business, but HSBC says it will take time for this to unwind completely. Meanwhile, other customers are expected to default on their mortgages as unemployment levels rise.

"It is clear that the U.S. consumer finance market will worsen before improving, and therefore expect another weak quarter," Alex Potter, a banking analyst at Collins Stewart, said Friday.

James Hutson, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said he expected bad debts at HSBC Finance, the U.S. consumer finance arm, to rise to $3.7 billion in the third quarter, up from $3.4 billion in the previous quarter and on the way to $14.4 billion for the year.

UBS put bad debts in the third quarter at $3.6 billion. Cazenove did not itemize bad debts specifically but predicted HSBC Finance would incur a quarterly loss of $850 million.

HSBC does not release full quarterly earnings but will issue a group trading update alongside its U.S. results. The update is likely to indicate a slowdown in Asia, more asset write-downs and gains on the value of its own debt, as well as a negative impact of currency moves, analysts said.

"We expect the group to report a resilient performance in turbulent markets with good profit growth across Asia and the Middle East, offset by continued pressure in the U.S.," analysts at Credit Suisse said this week.

HSBC was one of the first lenders to report big losses on U.S. mortgages in November 2006. A worsening economy and rising unemployment could delay recovery in HSBC Finance, formerly called Household, until 2010, analysts estimate.

HSBC has fared better than most banks during the credit crisis because of its strong capital and liquidity. That position may have improved as it attracted deposits because it was seen as a safe place, analysts said.


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Analysts cut profit estimates on Northern Trust Banks

MarketWatch Pulse
Friday, November 07, 2008

BOSTON -- Analysts at Janney Montgomery Scott on Friday cut their earnings estimates on custody banks Bank of New York Mellon Corp. , State Street Corp. and Northern Trust Corp. on weak outlooks and expectations of lower asset growth. "Moreover, client losses in securities lending portfolios will lead to significant reductions in fees associated with this ancillary service activity, with no corresponding short-term offset," the analysts said in a research note. "Our expectations are for overall fee income growth to turn negative next year," they said, citing lower markets and weaker results in foreign exchange and securities lending.

Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc.

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Greenspan: Economy not quite in freefall, but close

Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan testifies
before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee
on Capitol Hill in Washington October 23, 2008. The hearing centered
on the role of federal regulators in the Wall Street financial crisis.
Also testifying with Greenspan are SEC Chairman Christopher Cox (C)
and former Treasury Secretary John Snow (R).
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque (UNITED STATES)

The Financial Post
Friday, November 07, 2008

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said he is keeping an eagle eye on home and stock prices to get a sense of when the global financial crisis is nearing an end.

"It's important to recognize we are not in quite a freefall but something close to it," Mr. Greenspan told an audience of about 2,000 in Toronto Friday.

Only when house prices stabilize will there be any price discovery on soured market-backed securities.

He believes house prices "still have a way to go" down.

Mr. Greenspan said there was no doubt the U.S. economy was in a "very severe recession."

He said he has just finished looking at a barrage of recent data and has concluded the U.S. economy was sliding at "over a 3% annual rate."

"Indeed the early data for October suggest it is very more severe than that," he said.

He said it is important for world equity markets to stabilize as that makes capital available for investment.

"I suspect equity prices will lead the recovery in this particular context," he said. But he declined to say when that will happen.

"All bottoms look like the bottom we're looking at now" but it does not follow that this bottom will lead to a recovery.

More to come ...

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Selling by hedge funds is still putting pressure on the market

From iStockAnalyst
By David Enke
Friday, November 07, 2008 10:46 AM

Selling by hedge funds is still putting pressure on the market (see WSJ article). As we have discussed over the last month (see posts here and here), many redemption requests by hedge fund investors are now meeting their waiting periods, causing many funds to sell assets in order to raise cash. As quoted by Gregory Horn, president of Persimmon Capital Management:

"In mid-October, redemption levels were in the 5% range but all of a suUntitled Pagedden now it's cranking up to as high as 25% for some funds."
Certainly not good news for hedge funds, but maybe even worse news for the market. With continued forced selling, it is unlikely the market will quit trying to find a bottom. Hedge funds will continue to sell every rally, increasing volatility. As long as the VIX continues to spike and stay at elevated levels, and we continue to see the "punch-in-the-stomach" late day sell-offs after nice rallies (both of which I suspect are indications of further hedge funds selling), we will continue to be in a volatile holding pattern between 850 and 1,000 on the S&P.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to know exactly when the selling will quit, as the selling and redemption requests are tied together in what is becoming a volatile catch-22 pattern that is feeding upon itself. The other day I heard an analysts say it was "too late to sell, but too soon to buy." Until hedge fund investors believe the former, it is unlikely any investors will quit believing the latter.

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Corn and sugarcane based ethanol may be replaced by cellulose based ethanol soon

The Honey Mushroom is very common at Ojibway, found growing
on stumps and fallen logs. Freshly cut wood infected with
the actively growing fungus glows in the dark. This fungus
often kills trees that are weakened from other disease or injury.
Photo courtesy of Ojibway Nature Center

Nowadays, the recent problem of mass production of bio fuel based on ethanol is food shortage. Need of corn, soybean and sugarcane as raw of material of ethanol in large scale has made these commodity prices soar up. The current technology of bio ethanol requires carbohydrate and polysaccharides to be fermented by bacterias to provide ethanol over fermentation process. But unfortunately, the need of carbohydrate and polysaccharides can be able to be supplied almost only by food. It’s the main cause why bio ethanol production causes food shortage and it becomes the world concern about global hunger in the future.

Additionally, corn based ethanol production still depend on government subsidies. While sugarcane based ethanol is like corn based ethanol too. Even its cost production is cheaper than corn based ethanol but the both require fertilizers which depend on natural gas in the production process. As a result, corn and sugarcane based ethanol do not solve the world dependencies on fossils energy.

Driving up corn, soybean and fertilizer prices have made VeraSun Energy Corp., a corn based ethanol producer, collapsed on last Friday, October 31. While the others are in the similar situation amid global credit squeezed.

A Good News is coming from Novozymes A/S laboratories today. According to Bloomberg, fungi like mushrooms and lichen make enzymes to eat rotting logs and decaying leaves. Biofuel producers use the proteins to break down the complex carbohydrates in plant cells into a soup- like mixture of simple sugars that yeast can eat. In a process much like making beer, yeast ferments the mixture, producing ethanol. Enzymes now on the market can't break down the tougher parts of plants effectively enough to be affordable.

Novozymes’ Chief Executive Officer Steen Riisgaard confirmed in a September interview in Copenhagen that the Company plan to have enzymes commercially available in 2010. Availability of the enzyme will allow ethanol producers to produce at cost around $2.50 per gallon of ethanol.

The key of this fungi technology is effectiveness of the fungi enzyme to convert cellulosic matter into sugars, prior to fermentation which cannot be done by the current ethanol production technology which is using bacteria. In the fermentation process by using bacteria, the bacterias are anaerobic. When oxygen is present, it will inhibit or kill the bacterias. Fermentation process will also increase temperature in the medium that will cause the bacterias die. Those limit ethanol mass production by using bacteria. Cellulose fermentation by using bacteria requires mutant bacteria, ie: Mutant Escherichia Coli, which is still in the research.

Related Posts :
  1. World Food Shortage and the Ethanol Bubble
  2. George Soros: investing in green energy could save global economy
  3. George Soros: energy investments will fuel America’s next boom
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[Audio]Roman Frydman: Rating System Should Be Regulated

Bloomberg on the economy
November 6, 2008

Roman Frydman, An Economics Professor at New York University and co-author of ``Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk,'' talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the financial crisis, the role of rating agencies in asset bubbles and economic modeling.

Listen/Download this Podcast (Duration: 27:42 , Format: *.MP3)

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Las Vegas Sands is seeking funding in Asia to stave off defaulting on loans

The Las Vegas strip at night.
(PRNewsFoto/BestOfVegas.com)

After Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) severed a cash shortage, the company begin to seeks funding to stave off defaulting on loans while the company is facing ``substantial doubt'' about its ability to survive as a going concern.

Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire who controls Las Vegas Sands, is in talks with Singapore's government and banks in Hong Kong. The Cash shortage threatens $16 billion of casino developments in Asia, according to a person with knowledge of the meetings.

The Las Vegas Sands' declining revenue was due to declining in consumers spending on the Vegas Strip and restrictions on visas in Macau. China increased visa restrictions on some mainland residents traveling to Macau, causing casino gambling revenue in the former Portuguese colony to fall 10 percent to 26 billion patacas ($3.26 billion) in the third quarter.
Yesterday's filing raised concerns that dwindling cash flow may jeopardize $16 billion of casino developments in Macau, China, and Singapore, where Las Vegas Sands seeks to cater to wealthy Asian gamblers. Restrictions on Chinese who want to visit Macau may damp gambling revenue in the city where the company operates Asia's biggest casino resort.

The casino owner, which had $8.8 billion in long-term debt at the end of June, said in a regulatory filing that it probably won't meet lenders' requirements unless it cuts spending on developments, boosts earnings at its Las Vegas Strip casinos and raises more capital. The Lenders have also suggested that Las Vegas Sands sell shares or convertible bonds.

Yesterday's admission came after the 75-year-old Adelson, who holds a stake of more than 64 percent, invested an additional $475 million in September to avoid violating the terms of a loan. He hired an unidentified investment bank to raise more capital with his help.

The casino owner said it doesn't expect to meet a maximum leverage ratio covenant in the fourth quarter. That would trigger defaults that might force it to suspend development projects and ``raise a substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern,'' Las Vegas Sands said in the filing.

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Copper In Shanghai Slumps Daily

Bloomberg Video
November 7, 01:46 am

Copper in Shanghai slumps daily limit as inventory rise spurs demand fears; Analysis by David Moore, Commodity Strategist of Commonwealth Bank. Moore says :
  • Oil falling due to global economy
  • Metals to remain weak short term
  • Metals will recover in time


ETFs/Stocks :
    SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (ETF) XME  $26.70   -3.45 (-11.44%)
    COPPER ETFS COPA $21.65 0.00 ( 0.00%)
    Rio Tinto plc (ADR) RTP $157.51 -23.04 (-12.76%)
    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold FCX $26.88 -3.18 (-10.58%)
    BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) BHP $35.60 -4.76 (-11.79%)
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Obama to announce his pick for some key economic jobs soon

Reuters
November 6, 2008

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama is expected to announce his pick for some key economic jobs soon and may reveal his Treasury Secretary at any time.

Obama has assembled a 17-member transition economic advisory board to help him as he tries to decide who to put on his White House team and how to implement promised measures.

The board includes former Treasury secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, former Labor secretary Robert Reich, Google Inc chairman Eric Schmidt, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and billionaire Warren Buffett.

The market is looking closely at who Obama will name as Treasury Secretary. Top candidates for the job included Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summers and Volcker.


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Nouriel Roubini: Obama will inherit the most severe recession, the worst financial & banking crisis and a ballooning fiscal deficit

By Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
November 6, 2008

The good news is that America has just elected a president with leadership, vision and great intelligence. President Obama will also choose a first rate economic team: individuals such as Larry Summers and Tim Geithner would be excellent choices for the position of Treasury Secretary. Obama and his team are fully aware of the very difficult economic and financial challenges that the country is facing and will work hard to resolve them.

However, Obama will inherit and economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollar in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed Funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise given price deflation while the value of financial assets is still plunging. This is the bitter gift that the Bush administration has bequeathed to Obama and the Democrats.

Given this dismal background, let us consider next in more detail the macro outlook for the U.S. and global economy and its implications for financial markets…

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Souht Korea Cuts Rates for Third Time in a Month

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong-tae answers a reporter's question
during a news conference at the bank's headquarters in Seoul
November 7, 2008. South Korea's central bank cut interest rates
on Friday for the third time in a month, joining a global wave of
monetary easing aimed at shoring up the world economy and
calming panicked financial markets. REUTERS/Jo Yong-Hak (SOUTH KOREA)

The Global Central Banks are panic about global recession threat, deflation and global force liquidation.

After yesterday BOE cut its main lending rate by 150 basis points, while ECB and The National Bank of Swiss slashed their interest rate by 50 basis points. Today, The Bank of Korea lowered interest rates for the third time in four weeks after a flurry of deep rate cuts across Europe failed to calm panicky investors. The bank reduced the key rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent, the lowest since 2006, adding to 100 basis points of cuts in October. Policy makers are focused on keeping "the economy from weakening too much," Governor Lee Seong Tae said, adding he's prepared to "take bigger actions if necessary."

The Bank of Korea is joining global efforts to prevent a recession and can't afford to be an outsider. The South Korea’s economic committee will do what's needed to ward off the risk of a severe slowdown in economic activity brought about mainly by financial-market unrest.

The central bank probably will cut rates further because, like other countries, Korea is clearly under a lot of pressure going through this financial turmoil, according to David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. South Korea has been 'very aggressive' in taking steps to aid its economy compared with Asian neighbors.

"Concerns about foreign-currency liquidity seem to have mostly diminished and now is the time to take more close care of the real economy," President Lee Myung Bak said this week.

Exports, the main engine of the economy's expansion, rose at the weakest pace in 13 months in October as shipments to China, South Korea's biggest market, fell for the first time since 2002. Retail sales were gained by the least in nine months in September.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's second-biggest exporter, on Oct. 23 slashed its global vehicle-sales forecast for the year. Posco, the region's biggest maker of stainless steel, said last month it will cut output by about a third this quarter to cope with slowing demand.

ETFs/Stocks :
    iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF  EWY 25.38 -3.30 (-11.51%)
Related Posts :
  1. BOE, ECB and Swiss slash interest rates
  2. Central Banks Panic – ECB, BOE and RBA may follow the Fed to cut rates in the next week
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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