BlackRock(BLK) is Ready to Fill Gap

BlackRock(BLK)'s Stock prices soared after reported strong Q2 Earning on last Friday. There were rumors that Merrill Lynch(MER) will sell off around 49% its holding on BlackRock before Thain announced that, rather than selling its stake in BlackRock, it will "extend and strengthen" its relationship.

Merrill has announced on last Thurday that it will sell its holding on Bloomberg Stakes for almost $4.5 billion. Merrill will not sell such a valuable investment if it is not urgently requiring cash. After frightening $9 billion write-down and $4.95-per-share loss for the second quarter (which exceeded even the most pessimistic estimates), Merrill still holds around $19.9 billion in long exposures to asset-backed collateralized debt obligations on its balance sheet (down from $26.3 billion at the end of the first quarter).

Additionally, Merrill still has to raised almost 50% extra capital this year, and is expected it has been massively selling off almost 60% its holding in overseas stakes for 9 months. It seems Selling BlackRock is only matters of time. Let's see on the chart below, soaring BlackRock Stocks for three days has been overbought and should be followed by correction.



Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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More Bearish Alert on Bunge(BG)

The stock has retraced 22.6% from its recent high price of 127.64 which occurred on 23-Jun-2008. The current price is below the 50 day moving average of 113.22. Sustained move below the average could put the recent uptrend in jeapordy. S&P gives BG a neutral 3 STAR (out of 5) hold rating. BG appears on the Investors Observer Momentum Plays list.

The Naysayers are worried about the timing of the deal — corn prices are currently soaring amid a run-up in global demand. Actually, corn prices have surged about 75% over the past year and 17.5% since early June. when flooding throughout the Midwest lowered the outlook for this year’s crop yield.

As shown below, the chart is currently forming a Handle Cup Bearish Pattern:


Another bearish signal is The SMA 20 traverses down the SMA 50, see on the chart below:


Bunge is worth to be shorted.

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

RBC's Analyst Raised Potash(POT) Target Price to $375 from $340 on Capacity Expansions

Regarding to ClusterStock, Potash Corp. has announced almost C$6 billion of projects that will increase its operating capacity by 7.1 million tonnes in the 2010-2015 timeframe.

RBC estimates that these projects could add approximately $90.00-$95.00 per share of incremental value. Based on the long-term supply and demand outlook, RBC believe PotashCorp's 18 million tonnes of effective operating capacity will eventually be required to meet growing demand for potash.

POT's continued capacity expansion is adding significant. Consequently, RBC Capital raised POT's price target to $375. Shares are Outperform rated.



Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.

The Majority of the States are Seeing Payroll Employment Drop

I republish apart of John Mauldin's Weekly Letter on July 19, entitled "The World Will Not End":

More Government Statistical Fun

Each week we see a release of initial unemployment claims. This week initial claims jumped to 366,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. But what are the real underlying numbers? Every Thursday, I get a thorough review of the actual data from John Vogel, going back and looking at trends over the past 8 years in the non-seasonally adjusted data. That can be more interesting.

This week the actual number of initial claims of unemployment was 475,954, compared to 383,839 last year (2007). And the number of actual claims has been trending up. Taking the three first weeks of the current quarter, we are still below the recession years of 2001-3; but the trend is not what you would like to see, and given the decline in consumer spending (see below) it is likely to continue to trend up.

The actual data is very "noisy" and jumps all over the place, hence the use of seasonally adjusted numbers for public consumption. Economy.com thinks the difficulty may be in accounting for auto-related plant shutdowns in the seasonally adjusted number. Vogel speculates that employers are no longer waiting until the end of the quarter to lay personnel off but are doing it at any time in the quarter.

Given the issues, it is likely we will see a rise in the number back toward the 400,000 range (SA) that we saw earlier last month. But just be aware that there can be something really different in the actual numbers.

Below is a graph from economy.com showing where the employment problems are. The majority of the states are seeing payroll employment drop.

Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any asset you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.