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Thursday, October 30, 2008

An Interview with Joseph Stiglitz

Night Talk: An Interview with Joseph Stiglitz
October 30, 10:02 PM EST

Mr. Stiglitz, 2001 Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, was talking about the world which is now in the panic mode.



Related Posts :
  1. Governors Urge Aid for Automakers
  2. Stocks to Watch: AXP, LM, ICE, SPLS, WYN, HIG and AVP
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Governors Urge Aid for Automakers

Ford wants to ensure parity if GM receives aid. Interview with Governor Mike Rounds (R) of South Dakota.


Related Posts :
  1. Stocks to Watch: AXP, LM, ICE, SPLS, WYN, HIG and AVP
  2. UBS Analyst: Equities will go higher in six to twelve months
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Stocks to Watch: AXP, LM, ICE, SPLS, WYN, HIG and AVP

  1. American Express (AXP) to Cut 10% of Workforce, Resulting in 7K Jobs Lost and a 4Q Charge of Around $240-290 Million

  2. Legg Mason (LM) 3Q Earnings Come in Better Than Expected, Shares Rising 19%

  3. An Increase in Equity and Oil Trading Sends IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Shares Rising Over 20%

  4. Staples (SPLS) 3Q Earnings May Beat Estimates Amid Corporate Express Takeover

  5. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) Forecast Misses, 3Q Profit However Beats Estimates

  6. Hartford Financial (HIG) Shares Falling Over 30% After Profit Falls on Investment Losses;

  7. Avon Products (AVP) Cuts Profit Margin Forecast Due to Slowing North American Economy


Related Posts :
  1. UBS Analyst: Equities will go higher in six to twelve months
  2. Dennis Gartman Letter: Suggests investing in gold
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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UBS Analyst: Equities will go higher in six to twelve months

Analysis and Discussion with Mike Ryan of UBS Financial Services on October 30, 2008 09:33 am EST



Related Posts :
  1. BP Capital Loses $2B in Oil 4 hrs ago
  2. Marc Faber: "Bernanke is a disaster"
  3. 10/30/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 2)
  4. Dennis Gartman Letter: Suggests investing in gold
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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BP Capital Loses $2B in Oil 4 hrs ago

BP Capital has recently moved its assets to cash and discussing his plan for energy with Boone Pickens, BP Capital CEO

Watch the video here.

Related Posts :
  1. Marc Faber: "Bernanke is a disaster"
  2. 10/30/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 2)
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
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Marc Faber: "Bernanke is a disaster"




From Financetrends:
    Market strategist and investor Marc Faber joined Bloomberg yesterday to talk about the Fed rate cut and its affect on the markets.

    As those who are familiar with Faber's views have probably guessed, Marc was none too impressed with the Federal Reserve's latest action, or any of the recent efforts to "pump liquidity" into the markets and the economy.

    When asked about the job Ben Bernanke is doing as Fed Chairman, Faber responded by saying "Bernanke is a disaster". He also pointed out that the recent Treasury and Fed interventions and rule changes have actually created more volatility in the markets, citing the recent ban on short-selling as a primary example.

    Plenty more to hear in this interview clip.
Related Posts :
Sources :
  1. Bloomberg News Video: Marc Faber Interview
  2. Finance Trends Blog: Marc Faber: "Bernanke is a disaster", October 30, 2008 10:36 am
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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Who or what is the major culprit of this financial crisis?

From "The Mess That Greenspan Made" Blog:
    Who or what is the major culprit of this financial crisis?

    Nouriel Roubini answers:

    First of all the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long and created the housing bubble. Secondly the Fed and the other regulators were asleep at the wheel and allowed all these toxic mortgages to be created without controlling it. Three, there was plenty of greed and excessive risk taking on Wall Street. And four, the rating agencies had major conflicts of interest because they were being paid by those that were supposed to be rating. So the blame is to be shared by many different culprits.

    It is quite clear there is plenty of blame to go around but, interestingly, the first two of the four culprits mentioned by the world's most in-demand economist were the Federal Reserve.

    The entire transcript is available here.

Related Posts :
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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Japan announced a 27 trillion yen ($275 billion) stimulus package

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso speaks during a news conference
at his official residence in Tokyo October 30, 2008. Aso on Thusday unveiled
Japan's second economic package in about two months that
includes spending worth 5 trillion yen ($50.8 billion) as
the global credit crisis pushes the world's No. 2 economy into a recession.
REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao (JAPAN)

Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan announced a 27 trillion yen ($275 billion) stimulus package on Thursday to shore up that country’s economy, vowing to dispel fears over the global financial crisis with expanded credits for small businesses and a cash payback to every household.

Mr. Aso said, "The purpose of the package is not to merely spur one-off demand, It is to generate solid economic growth by steady domestic demand".

The package — which will total 26.9 trillion yen ($273 billion) — will include 2 trillion yen ($20 billion) in fixed-sum benefits to every household, meaning a 60,000 yen ($600) payment for a family of four.

It also guarantees expanded loans and credits to struggling small- and mid-sized companies and includes a cut in payroll deductions for employment insurance and reduced fees for highways.

As the global financial crisis began to unfold earlier this year, Japan’s economy looked to be in good shape compared to other advanced nations, avoiding major bank failures and bailouts.

But Japan’s economy, which is largely driven by exports, is sputtering. On Wednesday, the government said industrial output fell for a third consecutive quarter, with further declines expected in the months ahead.

Related Posts :
  1. China cuts benchmark interest rates by 27 basis points
  2. The Fed to supply $15 bln swap line with New Zealand
  3. Hungary to get $25 bln rescue packages from IMF
Sources :Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Falling Oil = Rising Refining Margins

by Brad Zigler
Website: HardAssestsInvestor.com
PUBLISHED: October 29, 2008 AT 1:15 PM

The petroleum complex nosed higher in overnight trading, mainly on technical short covering, as traders readied themselves for the Energy Department's weekly oil inventory report. Calls made by upstairs analysts for a 1.6 million-barrel build in crude oil inventories seemed to be discounted. When the numbers came out this morning, crude oil stocks had indeed increased, but by only 500,000 barrels. If Oil Patch analysts were wrong on the number, at least they were aiming their forecasts in the right direction.

If there's a forecast the experts can defend, it's that for refinery usage. The green-eyeshade set was pretty much on the money again this week on refining operations. Last week's capacity utilization, says the Energy Information Administration, was 85.3%, just two-tenths of a percent above industry expectations.

Calls for product inventories, however, were off base again. Gasoline inventories, which were expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels, instead fell by 1.5 million. A 700,000-barrel build in distillate fuel stocks, including diesel and heating oil, was forecast, but fuel inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels.

Traders are now focused on fund liquidations in the crude oil market. Over the past two weeks, the proportion of net long open interest held by large speculators - hedge and managed futures funds - has dipped to levels from which this year's dizzying price run-up was launched. A break below those levels would be especially bearish for the oil complex.

Large Speculators Net Long Crude Oil Positions

Chart: Large Speculators Net Long Crude Oil Positions


The downtrend in crude oil prices, however, is improving NYMEX crack spreads (background on the spread and its trading significance can be found in "Time For Crack Spreads?"). The nearby spread has firmed at the $5-a-barrel level, implying gross profit margins around 8%. A year ago, margins were below 7%.

Refining Margins

Chart: Refining Margins


Short covering was also featured in the natural gas futures market last night. While still appearing oversold, technical indicators are tipping bullish for the gas market, suggesting that the market may be near a short-term low.

Crude oil's premium to natural gas continues to deteriorate, as it aims for a November seasonal low. Since Labor Day, crude oil's fallen 43%, while natural gas has slipped 15%. The price action has whittled more than $7 per million British thermal units (mmBTU) off crude oil's energy-equivalent value. The drop has yielded a 239% return for spreaders who are long gas and short crude on a 1-to-1 basis (the seasonality of this spread is explained in "Spreading Oil And Natural Gas").

Crude Oil/Natural Gas Premium ($/mmBTU)

Chart: Crude Oil/Natural Gas Premium ($/mmBTU)


Related Posts :
  1. ExxonMobil - Big oil holds big cash
  2. Refiners Finally Increase Margins
Sources :
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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10/30/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 2)

Last update: 12:00 am EST

UPGRADE :

    Jefferies upgraded Legg Mason (LM) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent sell-off, as they find the risk/reward attractive at current levels. However, the firm lowered their target to $23 from $44.

    Merriman raised First Solar (FSLR) to Buy from Neutral after the company showed "industry leading growth" in Q3. The firm has a 12-month price target range of $185 to $195 per share.

    Ladenburg upgraded KeyCorp (KEY) to Buy from Neutral.

    Citigroup upgraded shares of Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) to Buy from Hold on valuation and expects the company to post above average industry growth in 2009.

    Janus Capital (JNS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.

    Associated Estates Realty (AEC) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.

    S&P maintains buy recommendation on shares of Energizer Holdings (ENR)

    ENR posts September-quarter operating EPS of $1.68, vs. $1.03, far above our $1.04 estimate and the $1.18 consensus. The upside was primarily from lower advertising and promotional expenses, early holiday shipments to some key customers, and hurricane-related sales. Underlying battery demand was soft. At current spot forex prices, the company forecasts a negative sales impact of about $135 million in fiscal year 2009 (September), or about a 3% decline, and expects that "holding earnings flat will be a challenge." We are reducing our fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate by $0.68 to $6.20 and our p-e-based target price by $14 to $66. -L. Braverman, CFA

    S&P maintains strong buy opinion on shares of Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

    CL posts third quarter operating EPS of $0.99, vs. $0.86, $0.03 above our estimate. Upside came from sales, which rose 13%, including a 3.5% benefit from forex, beating our 10% growth estimate. The best-performing segments were Latin America, Greater Asia/Africa and Pet Nutrition. Commodity costs pressured the gross margin more than we had projected, but were offset by more leveraging of operating expenses. We think commodity-cost pressures can start to moderate in the fourth quarter. We will update following this morning's conference call, during which we will be listening for forex guidance. -L. Braverman, CFA

    Credit Suisse reiterates outperform on Apollo Group (APOL)

    Credit Suisse analyst Kelly Flynn says Apollo Group's (APOL) $0.75 pro-forma EPS beat her $0.64 view. She says 15.4% enrollment growth beat her 10.6%, accelerating from third quarter's 11%; 19.1% starts growth beat her 8.5%; non-associates starts grew 8.1% against a tough comp.

    Flynn also notes that the company's retention was up 240 basis points, operating margin expanded 273 basis points, and free cash flow growth outpaced EPS growth by more than 300 basis points.

    She raises $3.28 fiscal year 2009 (August) EPS estimate to $3.48. She remains optimistic that her new estimate could prove conservative if current trends continue. She sets fiscal year 2010 estimate at $4.03. She also increases her price target to $75 from $70.

HOLD/NEUTRAL :

    S&P maintains hold opinion on shares of Visa (V)

    Before $1.1 billion litigation reserve build, Visa posts September-quarter operating EPS of $0.58, vs. pro forma loss of $2.13, $0.02 above our $0.56 EPS estimate. Due to a slowdown in international spending, management expects fiscal year 2009 (September) revenue growth to come in at the lower end of its 11%-15% range. We believe Visa should benefit from its high percentage of debit cards, which are performing better than its credit cards in terms of spending growth. We are maintaining our fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate of $2.70, but lowering our target price by $3 to $54, an above-peer 20 times our fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate. -S. Plesser

    S&P maintains hold opinion on Motorola shares (MOT)

    Before a number of one-time charges, MOT posts third quarter EPS of $0.05, vs. $0.03, ahead of our $0.02 estimate. Revenues were weaker than we expected, with a decline handset volumes from the second quarter and a surprising decrease in network and enterprise mobility revenues, which had been a stabilizer for MOT. The company announced plans to delay the planned separation of its handset operations beyond original goal of 2009, due to tight credit markets and ongoing restructuring efforts. On the morning call, we look for more details about inventory levels in light of the challenging macroeconomic market. -T. Rosenbluth

    S&P maintains hold opinion on shares of Target COrp. (TGT)

    Hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, which owns nearly 10% of TGT's outstanding shares, has proposed TGT spin off its real estate assets to increase the value of the company. TGT is still evaluating this proposal. TGT shares are down about 19% year to date. We attribute this decline to a weakening economy that is depressing valuations of even best-in-class retailers. We think TGT is well-positioned to weather near-term challenges we foresee, and to improve shareholder value once the economy begins to recover. -J. Asaeda

DOWNGRADE :

    Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG) was cut to "neutral" from "buy"

    Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG), the sixth-largest U.S. insurer, was cut to "neutral" from "buy" by Merrill Lynch & Co. Included are analysts’ calls for Cemex SAB, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, Citigroup Inc., Dana Gas PJSC, NCI Building Systems Inc. and Grupo Modelo SAB de CV.

    The Downgraded rating was citing greater than expected capital volatility and the potential for another $2B capital raise or more in order to maintain ratings.

    Listen/Download this Podcast from Bloomberg (Duration: 02:29 , Format: *.MP3)

    Baird downgraded Polypore International (PPO) to Neutral from Outperform and lowered its target to $16 from $28 due to the company's announcement that its battery separator pact with Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) will end in December.

    Ashland (ASH) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) were cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

    Achillion (ACHN) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.

    Needham downgrades VistaPrint (VPRT)

    Needham analyst Mark May says he's downgrading VistaPrint (VPRT) to hold from buy, as its first quarter results confirmed his view going into the report that VPRT's business is likely paced in line, but that a strengthening U.S. dollar would negatively impact the company's fiscal year 2009 (June) revenue guidance.

    May notes that what he didn't fully anticipate was the meaningful (likely economically-induced) slowdown in order growth that VPRT has supposedly witnessed since the start of the second quarter.

    He cuts $1.52 fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate to $1.32 and $521.2 million revenue forecast to $480.1 million.

    Goldman cuts Altera (ALTR) to sell from neutral to sell, while Xilinx (XLNX) to neutral

    Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider says he is becoming more cautious on programmable logic devices (PLD) stocks, as he now believes there likely to be significant pullback in communications infrastructure spending, especially for wireless infrastructure in emerging markets, over the next year.

    He downgrades Altera (ALTR) to sell from neutral and Xilinx (XLNX) to neutral from buy. Despite outperformance relative to his coverage in past year and good cost control from both companies, Schneider believes growth is likely to be challenged in 2009.

    He cuts Altera $1.20 2009 EPS estimate to $0.95 and $1.50 2010 to $1.00, and his $20 6-month price target to $16.

INITIATION :
    Vertex's (VRTX) shares were initiated with a Buy rating

    Merriman believes the Vertex's (VRTX) lead compound, telaprevir, is the most advanced therapeutic for the treatment of hepatitis C in clinical development. The firm thinks shares are undervalued at current levels and initiated shares with a Buy rating.

    Markel (MKL) shares initiated with a Market Perform

    Markel (MKL) was initiated at Keefe Bruyette with a Market Perform and $360 target. The firm believes shares are fairly valued at current levels.

    Cemex (CX) was assumed with an Underperform rating and $7 target at Credit Suisse.

    Pharmasset (VRUS) shares were initiated with a Buy rating

    Merriman believes Pharmasset (VRUS) has a strong pipeline with drugs targeting major indications in the infectious disease space. The firm, which started shares with a Buy rating, thinks shares could trade closer to a range of $22 to $26 in the next 12 months.

Related Posts :
  1. 10/29/2008 Market Recap - The Fed interest rate cut
  2. 10/29/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 2)
Sources :
  1. Business Week: Analyst Actions: Altera, Xilinx, Apollo Group, VistaPrint, October 29, 2008, 12:11PM EST
  2. Business Week: S&P Picks and Pans: Visa, Motorola, Colgate-Palmolive, Target, Energizer, October 30, 2008, 10:17AM EST
  3. Blogging Stocks: Analyst calls: LM, FSLR, KEY, HIG, PPO, ASH, VRTX, MKL, CX ..., October 30, 2008, 11:31 AM EST
  4. Bloomberg: Bloomberg on the economy, October 30, 2008
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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10/29/2008 Market Recap - The Fed interest rate cut

Chart courtesy of http://finance.google.com

Major U.S. stock indexes, which enjoyed an afternoon rally following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the benchmark U.S. interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.0%, turned lower in the final minutes of trading Wednesday. U.S. stocks dropped in the final 12 minutes of trading on concern that the Federal Reserve's sixth interest-rate cut this year isn't enough to rescue the economy. The Fed was saying that a recession is in place and that a global recession is unfolding.

"We are at the beginning of a very severe U.S. recession; it's going to be much more painful," New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "There are still significant downside risks to equity markets and credit markets". Watch the video : Nouriel Roubini Sees `Significant Downside Risk' for Equities.

Here is a part of the Cobra's analysis, for the complete article, please visit his blog link on the related posts:
    The bad news is that we still have not seen two up days in a row since October. However the good news is we get several intermediate term buy signals. As far as tomorrow is concerned, the daily chart is relatively bearish but there is no sufficient evidence to predict the market will definitely pull back tomorrow.

    SPY Mid-term Trading Signals

    MACD, BPSPX, and NAMO are all buy signals, except for NYSI which is still not.

    Click the image to enlarge


    INDU leads the Market

    It does not really mean INDU leads the market. What I mean is that, according to the chart in the recent one year, the progress of INDU is almost always ahead of other indices. Tomorrow INDU showed a higher high ahead of others, which is a good sign, and the next step is to see if other indices follow. By the way, while SPX and COMPQ were still lower lows, INDU clearly showed higher highs which is also a good sign.

    Click the image to enlarge

    With the aforementioned mid-term signals and two major accumulation days on 1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days, the probability of mid-term rally should be relatively high. Should the market pull back, we will get more evidence according to how far the pullback goes.

    Tomorrow the market might pull back, but I am not very sure.

    CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)

    As pointed out by readers, because there are so many gaps on FXY chart, gap down cannot be considered as an island reversal. This doesn't mean Yen won't pullback, it only says the terminology of island reversal isn't accurate.

    Click the image to enlarge


Related Posts :
  1. 10/29/2008 Market Recap - The 2nd-best day ever
  2. 10/29/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 2)
Sources :
  1. Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Decline as Fed Fails to Ease Concern About Economy, October 29, 2008 17:18 EDT
  2. Reuters: Fed slashes rates, again, October 29, 2008 01:24 pm EST
  3. Cobra's Market View: 10/29/2008 Market Recap: 3 intermediate term buy signals, October 29, 2008 10:01 pm
Please Note!


This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Colonial Bancorp Rating Cut at Fitch to BBB-

From Bloomberg
October 30, 2008 05:51 am EST

Colonial Bancorp Rating Cut at Fitch to BBB-; Colonial Sees Qualifying for $570 Million in TARP Funding, Analysts However are Doubtful; Banks That May Not Qualify for TARP are Mostly in Alabama and Florida.


Related Posts :
  1. ExxonMobil - Big oil holds big cash
  2. Dennis Gartman Letter: Suggests investing in gold
  3. Credit Suisse Raises Google to "Buy" with a $400 Price Target
Sources :
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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ExxonMobil - Big oil holds big cash

From Bloomberg
October 29, 2008

ExxonMobil Has Enough Cash to Fund Both Capital Spending and Shareholder Payout; Explorers and Liquefied Natural Gas Producers Look to Be Takeover Targets; Canadian Energy Companies May Be Takeover Targets.



Related Posts :
  1. Dennis Gartman Letter: Suggests investing in gold
  2. Credit Suisse Raises Google to "Buy" with a $400 Price Target
Sources :
Please Note!

This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Dennis Gartman Letter: Suggests investing in gold

From Bloomberg
October 30, 2008 02:50 am EST

Currencies & the Fed - Analysis and Discussion with Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter. The meaning of a rate cut, Mr. Gartman suggests investing in gold.



Related Posts :
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  2. The Fed to supply $15 bln swap line with New Zealand
  3. Dennis Gartman Sees Baby Boomers Looming as `Large Sellers of Stock'
  4. Dennis Gartman Predicts Corn Ethanol Producers Bankruptcy
  5. Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading
Sources :
Please Note!


This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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