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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Hedge Funds Battle To Save Billions From Lehman (LEH) Bankruptcy


By Jonathan Kennedy, ClusterStock.Com, Sep 24, 08 8:32 AM

Several hedge funds have initiated legal action against PricewaterhouseCoopers, Lehman Brothers' European administrator, in a bid to recover up to $40 billion in assets which have been frozen as a result of the firm's declaration of bankruptcy. FT :
    RAB Capital sued in the UK High Court this week demanding the return of $50m held by the failed bank on behalf of one of its smaller funds.

    RAB failed to accelerate the hearing of the case, which is being followed by other funds owed money by Lehman, but was continuing with the action.

    However, some hedge funds may find they become general creditors of Lehman as PwC, the administrators, disclosed that they believed the bank’s prime brokerage had used about $22bn of the collateral held in trades for its own cash-raising operations in a practice known as rehypothecation. This allows the prime broker to re-lend client securities held as collateral.
The problem for Lehman, or PwC as the case may be, is that RAB had an agreement with Lehman which stipulated that RAB assets could not be used for rehypothecation. Several other funds are in a similar position, and will watch the outcome closely.

Related Posts :

Lehman(LEH) Becomes A Penny Stock

Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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Sorry, RTC History Suggests Stock Market Not At Bottom

By Henry Blodget, clusterstock.com, Sep 24, 08 9:31 AM

Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg answers the question we were dying to know the answer to: What happened to the markets after the last huge government bailout--the RTC thrift deal in 1989?

Answer?

Depends which market you're talking about. But unless you mean the bond market, which soared, the answer is "they kept going down."

Specifically, the stock market dropped for another year, the economy dropped for two years, and the housing market dropped for three years. So put the cork back in that champagne. Rosenberg :
    The elusive bottom : Keep in mind, for all the bottom pickers out there, that after the RTC was
    established in 1989 it took a year for the stock market to bottom, two years for the
    economy to bottom, and three years for the housing market to bottom. And recall
    that after the FSA in Japan was unveiled in 1997 the stock market didn’t bottom
    for another five years and it’s an open question as whether the economy ever did
    manage to stage a sustainable recovery. In the Swedish case of the early 1990s,
    even with an effective government solution, the process of extinguishing the bad
    debts via government intervention was painful – the equity market incurred a
    28-month long bear market that saw Sweden’s major index decline 45% from
    peak to trough and the economy undergo a 20-month recession that saw
    domestic demand contract by 2-1/2%.

Prefer pictures to words? Here are some from David's most recent note.

Stock Market : Here's the S&P 500 from the late-80s to the early-90s. That little red dot is the RTC bailout deal:

Economy : Here's GDP. Again, that dot is the bailout.


Unemployment : Did the bailout put people right back to work? Not exactly.


Housing : Given that the RTC cleaned up the S&L mess, you might think housing bounced back right away. Nope.


The good news is that David notes that bonds were a great buy shortly after the RTC deal. He thinks the same thing will happen this time around :
    Initial [bond] selloff turned into great buying opportunity. bond yields backed up initially as investors focused on the potential for a substantial increase in the supply of Treasuries. Yet, while the yield on the 10-year note yield backed up around 100 basis points (50 basis points in today’s terms) in response to the uncertain fiscal outlook at the time, the reality is that this selloff turned into one of the greatest buying opportunities in the past two decades. By the time the prolonged period of sub-par economic growth ended in late 1993, the 10-year note yield rallied more than 300 basis points from the post-RTC highs. bond yields backed up initially as investors focused on the potential for a substantial increase in the supply of Treasuries. Yet, while the yield on the 10-year note yield backed up around 100 basis points (50 basis points in today’s terms) in response to the uncertain fiscal outlook at the time, the reality is that this selloff turned into one of the greatest buying opportunities in the past two decades. By the time the prolonged period of sub-par economic growth ended in late 1993, the 10-year note yield rallied more than 300 basis points from the post-RTC highs.


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  4. Paulson's Market Manipulation Bailout Will Fail Because..
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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TED Spread: Back in "Credit Hell"

From The Calculated Risk :

Here is the TED Spread from Bloomberg.


The TED spread has increased to 3.02% (after falling to just over 2.5% yesterday). This suggests the credit markets are still in "credit hell" as reader BR put it this morning.

Most of the increase in the TED spread is because the three month T-bill is trading back down to 0.47%.

Note: the TED spread is the difference between the three month T-bill and the LIBOR interest rate. Usually the TED spread is less than 0.5%. The higher the spread, the greater the perceived credit risks (compared to "risk free" treasuries).


Related Posts :

Turmoil in The Financial Markets is Reaching McDonald's

Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Berkshire to GS: "I Got $5 Billion, but Its Gonna Cost Ya"

By Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, on Tuesday, September 23, 2008 10:04 PM

Tonight's Goldman Sachs/Warren Buffett deal is a classic example of our post 2001 news: Looks good as a headline, is godawful underneath. Of course, futures popped on the announcement.

The WSJ subhead read "Move by Famed Investor Amid Crisis Seen as Vote of Confidence in Banking System."

Puh-leeze.

Vote of confidence? Hardly. Doubtful. It is merely an opportunistic deal, and probably a damn good one, for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). On the other hand, for Goldman Sachs, it is a very expensive deal. If you delve beneath the headlines, you see that Warren is not so much making a vote of confidence as he is extracting pound of flesh (and then some).

Verily, let's look at the details to figure out just how much GS is paying for this capital:

• Goldman Sachs pays a fat dividend to Berkshire Hathaway of 10% on $5 Billion dollars -- that's $500 million per year. And, since this is a preferred, it gets paid out of net income in after tax dollars dollars. Ouch.

• Goldman gets the right to call the preferred at any time at a 10 percent premium. Ouch again.

• Buffett gets $5 billion worth of warrants with a strike price of $115, or about 43.47 million shares. The warrants are good for only 5 years.

If Buffett were to go to the Street earlier today to buy 44 million calls with a $115 strike price (circa 2010), they would have cost him about $1.5 billion dollars. With GS now trading at $135, Buffett’s $5 billion investment is more like $3.5B, in terms of net cost to him. Hence, the 10% interest is more like 14%.

Doug Kass thinks its an even better deal for Berkshire -- goes further than I do, putting an intrinsic value on the warrants of about $2 billion. That makes Buffet's net cost $3B -- so the effective yield is closer to 17%. (Ouch)

A friend points out that Goldie bought back 1.5 million shares in the quarter ending 8/31, at an average price of $180 a share. (Nice trade). I’m thinking the buyback program may be on hold for a while here.

~~~

Bottom line: This is a terribly expensive deal, but probably a necessary one. The smart boys at 85 Broad Street did not want to wait until they were too desperate to get even a mediocre deal. They sure as hell did not want to "pull a Fuld."

This also looks like a steady stream of income for Berkshire Hathaway. And what do you want to bet me that Warren asked for -- and got -- a very serious promise from Bernanke & Paulson that Goldman would under no circumstances be allowed to tank like Lehman? This might even be a riskless deal for Buffett.

Vote of Confidence my ass . . .

Additional sources:

Berkshire Hathaway to Invest $5 Billion in Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs, September 23, 2008
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/press/press-releases/current/berkshire-hathaway-invest.html

Goldman to Raise $7.5 Billion From Berkshire, Public
Christine Harper
Bloomberg, Sept. 23 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0Rfcqk5UR60&

Buffett to Invest $5 Billion in Goldman
SUSANNE CRAIG, MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG and SUSAN PULLIAM
WSJ, SEPTEMBER 24, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122220798359168765.html


Related Posts :
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Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Turmoil in The Financial Markets is Reaching McDonald's

By Ben Bittrolff

Click to Enlarge

“This is the first signal that turmoil in the financial markets is reaching McDonald's.” – Richard Adams, McDonald’s Consultant

“Bank of America has been taking steps to increase capacity to fund additional growth.” –McDonald’s Treasury Department

“McDonald's is identifying new sources of liquidity and loan programs for our franchisees.” –McDonald’s

Can you say CREDIT CRUNCH?

McDonald's Says Bank of America Won't Boost Loans (Update3): “McDonald's Corp., the world's largest restaurant company, told some U.S. franchisees to seek other ways to finance store improvements after Bank of America Corp. declined to increase lending.

Store owners have exhausted financing used to pay for upgrades and equipment to make lattes and espressos, and Bank of America won't provide more money as it works on the planned purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co., McDonald's said in a memo that was obtained by Bloomberg News.”

Sorry, we can’t make productive loans because we are too busy digesting the toxic waste we’ve acquired…

“These levels held and violently rejected prices. BAC fell back into “the box” and then dropped through support around $28 before closing above that key level. BAC is run by executives blinded by greed. Countrywide Financial was not a bargain. Merril Lynch (MER) is not a bargain. They are giant, undefined liabilities. To expand like this in a credit crisis is border line retarded. BAC shareholders will eventually realize this?”




–TheFinancialNinja, 09/17/08

Source : Bank of America Not Lovin' It

Related Posts :
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Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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$5 Trillion Cash Pool Needed to Stop Rout, Ohmae Says

From Jesse's Café Américain.


Noted Japanese business strategist Kenichi Ohmae suggests that the entire world scrape together $5 Trillion from their forex reserves and savings and give it to the Wall Street banks.

It would be much easier to just print it, and let the dollar devaluation be spread out evenly over every holder of US dollars in the world.

Actually, that's the obvious plan and we're already rolling the presses. Ohmae just has not figured that out yet.

Lions, and tigers and bears, Ohmae!


$5 Trillion Cash Pool Needed to Stop Rout, Ohmae Says
By Bei Hu

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan to buy devalued assets from financial companies is ``a joke'' because it doesn't go far enough to calm markets, said Kenichi Ohmae, president of Business Breakthrough Inc.

Ohmae, nicknamed ``Mr. Strategy'' during his 23 years as a McKinsey & Co. partner, called for a $5 trillion ``international facility'' to be made available to financial institutions. The system could be modeled on one used by Sweden during its banking crisis in the early 1990s, he said.

``This is a liquidity crisis,'' Ohmae said at an investor forum hosted by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, the regional broking arm of Credit Agricole SA, in Hong Kong yesterday. ``The liquidity has to be so big that people won't get panicky.''

Paulson's proposal to remove hard-to-sell assets clogging the financial system marks the broadest intervention since at least the Great Depression. Asian stocks fell today, following U.S. shares lower as investors questioned whether the effort is enough to prevent a recession.

The plan came after the collapse of 158-year-old Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the government takeover of insurer American International Group Inc. caused financial markets to seize up last week. The calamity was the culmination of a year during which the U.S. housing market slump left banks and securities firms with more than $520 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses.

Yesterday, Paulson and lawmakers narrowed their differences on the plan and agreed that the U.S. should get equity in participating companies.

Hard to Coordinate

Ohmae, 65, is the author of management books including ``The Mind of The Strategist,'' ``The Borderless World'' and ``The End of the Nation State.'' Business Breakthrough, founded in 1998, provides online management training.

One way of funding the $5 trillion facility would be through contributions from foreign exchange reserves in China, Japan, Taiwan, the Gulf states, the European Union and Russia, Ohmae said.

An international relief effort on that scale might be difficult to coordinate, said Robert Howe, founder of Hong Kong- based hedge fund manager Geomatrix (HK) Ltd., which oversees $32 million. ``I doubt the practicality of getting international cooperation on something like this,'' he said.

Ohmae compared the current financial crisis with Japan's 15- year economic decline that began in 1989. Both started with a property bubble, which wiped out companies' equity when it burst, and like in Japan, the current one could lead to escalating bankruptcies as banks worried about their own survival rein in lending, he said.

`Viagra' Economy

The financial-market upheaval may lead to slower growth in China and the reversal of the commodity boom as ship orders are canceled and steel supply dumped, said Ohmae. What Ohmae called Japan's ``Viagra'' economy and Australia's ``dig and deliver'' boom may also fizzle as China weakens, he said.

Against the backdrop of a potential global market panic, Paulson's plan is insufficient, said Ohmae. Paulson is a former chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm.

``He wants to fix problems one by one as if he were still the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs,'' he said. ``He has to take his CEO hat completely off and come up with a systemic solution as opposed to a one-by-one solution.''

Related Posts :
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  3. Bottom Line on Paulson-Bernanke Bailout Plan
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Warren Buffett Invests Billions in Goldman Sachs

By Ron Haruni, An SA Author.

On Tuesday, the Goldman Sachs Group (GS), which on Monday relinquished its investment bank status and adopted a bank-holding co. structure, announced that it had reached an agreement to sell $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) in a private offering. The perpetual preferred stock will have a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium.

In addition to the $5 billion from Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman will raise at least $2.5 billion in common equity in a public offering.

Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and CEO of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. said:
    We are pleased that given our longstanding relationship, Warren Buffett, arguably the world’s most admired and successful investor, has decided to make such a significant investment in Goldman Sachs. We view it as a strong validation of our client franchise and future prospects.
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., said:
    Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution. It has an unrivaled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance.
According to the press release, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115 per share, which are exercisable at any time for a five year term.

Shares of Goldman rose nearly 10%, to mid-$137 level in after-hours trading following the announcement.

The investment is Buffett’s second major purchase in less than a week. On Thursday, Berkshire’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. agreed to buy power supplier Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG) for $4.7 billion.

Disclosure: None

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Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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