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Monday, August 11, 2008

Rio Tinto(RTP) Flags US Coal Float

According to Heraldsun.com.au on August 11, RIO Tinto(RTP) is looking to divest $US15 billion of assets after the purchase of Alcan(AL), has flagged a float of its North American coal business.

The listed company would be called Cloud Peak Energy and house most of the North American coal assets of Rio Tinto Energy America, the second largest producer of coal in the United states.

Rio Tinto said it expected to make a final decision on a potential listing, or to pursue another form of divestment, once these options had been more fully explored. Credit Suisse is the lead underwriter for the planned float.

Both the weekly and daily charts below show RTP is currently oversold. The stock prices have been slumped by about 36 percent from its peak on May 2008. A slump more than 20 percent indicates that the stock is currently in bear territory. But as a contrarian, while the stock prices are oversold, it's confirmed by the W%R and RSI indicators, it should be considered as an opportunity to go bottom fishing. But you must also be careful, because if we don’t we will catch some falling knives instead.



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Gold Stock's Profit and Margin Charts

Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Sir John Templeton's 16 Rules of Investment Success


"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."

-Sir John Templeton-



John Marks Templeton was born on November 29, 1912 in Winchester, into a poor Tennessee family. He graduated with honors from Yale, won a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford, and then went on to bring investment insights and opportunities to everyday investors.

Shortly before the war began in Europe in 1939, he joined a brokerage in New York. His first investment coup was to turn $10,000 borrowed from his boss. His strategy was to buy all the 104 US stocks that were selling for less than $1 at the outbreak of the war. Including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others as much as $40,000 after holding each for an average of four years. Templeton launched his flagship fund, Templeton Growth, Ltd. in 1954. Taking a less-traveled route in investing, he also sold advice on how to invest worldwide when Americans rarely considered foreign investment.

In investing and in life, John Templeton didn't believe in following the crowd. He was a pioneer with a unique vision and perspective whose hard work and meticulous research were his personal guideposts to success. In 1999, Money magazine called him:

"arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century"


His Sixteen Rules of Investment Success are:
  1. If you begin with a prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.

  2. Outperforming the market is a difficult task. The challenge is not simply making better investment decisions than the average investor. The real challenge is making investment decisions that are better than those of the professionals who manage the big institutions.

  3. Invest - don't trade or speculate. The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in and out of stocks every time they move a point or two, the market will be your casino. And you may lose eventually --or frequently.

  4. Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook. Ultimately, it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. Individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or the economic outlook.

  5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks. Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don't expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.

  6. Buy low. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you'll have the same results as everyone else. By definition you can't outperform the market.

  7. There's no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment. Never invest solely in a tip. You would be surprised how many investors do exactly this. Unfortunately there is something compelling about a tip. Its very nature suggests inside information, a way to turn a fast profit.

  8. Do your homework, or hire wise experts to help you. People will tell you: investigate before you invest. Listen to them. Study companies to learn what makes them successful.

  9. Diversify - by company, by industry. In stocks and bonds, there is safety in numbers. No matter how careful you are, you can neither predict nor control the future. So you must diversify.

  10. Invest for maximum total real return. This means the return after taxes and inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors.

  11. Learn from your mistakes. The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. So forgive yourself for errors and certainly don't try to recoup losses by taking bigger risks. Instead, turn each mistake into a learning experience.

  12. Aggressively monitor your investments. Remember no investment is forever. Expect and react to change. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. Being relaxed doesn't mean being complacent.

  13. An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand the questions. A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster. The wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.

  14. Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment. There are times to buy blue-chip stocks, cyclical stocks, and convertible bonds, and there are times to sit on cash. The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best.

  15. Don't panic. Sometimes you won't have sold when everyone else is selling, and you will be caught in a market crash. Don't rush to sell the next day. Instead, study your portfolio. If you can't find more attractive stocks, hold on to what you have.

  16. Do not be fearful or negative too often. There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But over time our studies indicate, stocks do go up ….and up … and up. In this century or the next, it's still "Buy low, sell high."

Related Posts :
  1. Market Lessons From 2007
  2. Paul Tudor Jones's Rules of Trading
  3. Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading
  4. Jim Cramer’s 25 Rules of Investing
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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A Citi's Analyst Reiterated His Buy on Google

Here is a copy from ClusterStock.com on August 8, 2008 :
    Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated his Buy on Google (GOOG) this morning, citing the fact that Google's Q2 "normalized" earnings would have been better were it not for abnormally large professional service fees and forex hedging losses (translation: They didn't really blow the quarter, at least not for reasons worth worrying about). Also, the new would-be Google killer "Cuil" (Qwee-il), is DOA.

    Mahaney :

      G&A soared $67MM from Q1 to Q2 to reach $441MM, a record high 11.3% of net revenue. The reason? Per the Q, GOOG had a $62MM Q/Q increase in professional services fees, the majority of which were legal costs. For context, professional fees increased $15MM from Q4 to Q1. These aren’t 1X charges, but the point is that the Q2 increase was a bit unusual and helps explain the Q2 G&A bump.

      Interest Income plunged $109MM from Q1 to Q2 to $58MM. Reasons? Per the Q: 1) GOOG’s yield on its cash/investments went from 4.0% in Q1 to 2.8% in Q2; 2) GOOG went from a $47MM gain on market securities in Q1 to a $7MM gain in Q2; & 3) GOOG went from a $2MM FX gain in Q1 to a $43MM FX loss in Q2. These FX costs were due to more hedging activity under GOOG’s risk management program. The point? The Interest Income Lump in Q2 was unusual.
    .

    By Mahaney's calculations, Google's Q2 EPS would have been 19 cents higher and would have beaten analyst estimates were it not for these factors. Furthermore, Mahaney says that GOOG remains a buy because of strong organic growth and a new product cycle in 09 that includes benefits from display advertising in mobile search and video :

      The 10Q Takeaway is that “normalized” Q2 results (assuming, say, only $30MM increased professional services fees & no FX hedging losses) could have been more like $4.81 vs. the $4.62 reported. But this isn’t a reason to Buy GOOG.

      What are reasons to Buy are: 1. 30% organic bottom line growth in ’08 vs. a 25X P/E; 2. Potential opex leverage in ’09 from “normalized” personnel/capex spend; & most importantly, 3) Material new ’09 product cycles – Display Advertising, Video (YouTube), and Mobile Search.

    Finally, Mahaney concludes by peeing on Cuil:

      We’d be surprised if more Search engines weren’t launched, and we’d remind readers of Snap, which was launched shortly after GOOG’s IPO to significant fanfare. We’ve done our own (not statistically significant) sampling work on Cuil, and we conclude that the results aren’t nearly as relevant or as in-depth as Google. Our conclusion is that Cuil appears on the same growth trajectory as Snap... But we’ll continue to monitor it and the other search engines.


    Mahaney reiterates his $610 Google target.
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Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Market Lessons From 2007

I republish the material below from Barry Ritholtz's Article, entitled "Lessons Learned From A Dangerous Year", on The Big Picture:

    In the beginning of the year, a column I wrote for Real Money discussed some lessons of the past year. It never was moved over to the free site, so here is my belated update.

    It is a mix of fundamental, economic, technical and even philosophical lessons that those savvy CEOs, fund managers and individual investors who were paying attention picked up in the recent turmoil.

    1. Ignore market rumors :

      It seemed every time some firm was in trouble, the same gossip was floated that Warren Buffett was about to buy them. Time and again, these tales proved to be unfounded money-losers. This year's most egregious example was Berkshire's imminent purchase of Bear Stearns (BSC).

      That The New York Times Dealbook got suckered into printing this just shows you how pernicious these rumors are. The stock was as high as $123 the day of the rumor.

      Anyone who bought homebuilders or Bear Stearns stock on the basis of either of these rumors -- or nearly any other stock that had similar rumors floated throughout the year -- lost boatloads of money.

    2. Buy sector strength (and avoid sector weakness) :

      It's a truism of real estate: It's better to own a lousy house in a great neighborhood than a great house in a lousy one. And the same is true for stock sectors: Buying mediocre companies in great sectors generated positive results, while great companies in poor sectors struggled.

      The losers are obvious: The homebuilders, financials, monoline insurers and retailers all struggled this year. The winners? Anything related to agriculture, solar energy, oil servicing, industrials, software, exporters, infrastructure plays -- even asset-gatherers thrived.

    3. Never blindly follow the "big money":

      Why? Because professionals make dumb mistakes too. Many people chased the so-called smart money into these trades. Unfortunately, all of these trades have proven to be jumbo losers.

    4. Day-to-day stock action is mostly noise :

      This is blasphemy to some people, but it's true: Markets eventually get pricing right. But the key to understanding this is the word "eventually." Over the shorter term, markets frequently under- or overprice a stock before settling into the right approximation of value. This process typically occurs over broad lengths of time.

    5. P/E matters less than you think:

      If that sounds like more blasphemy, look at Google (GOOG) , Apple (AAPL) and Mosaic (MOS) -- they all sported high P/Es at the beginning of 2007 before going much higher. On the other hand, back in January '07, retailers, financials and homebuilders all had reasonably cheap P/Es. (How'd they do over the next 12 months?)

    6. Ignore deteriorating fundamentals at your peril :

      One would think this doesn't need to be said, and yet it does: When the fundamentals of a given market, sector or consumer group are decaying, profit gains are sure to slow.

    7. Nothing is more costly than chasing yield :

      For fixed-income investors, what matters most is not the return on your money, it's the return of your money. Reaching down the risk curve for a few bips of additional yield is one of the dumbest things an investor can ever do.

    8. Know what you own:

      This very basic issue was mostly forgotten in recent years, and it was forgotten by pros and individuals.

      Investment banks like Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) , big banks like Citigroup (C) and Washington Mutual (WM) , and GSEs like Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) were scooping up assets apparently without doing their homework. The complexity of these pools of mortgages almost guarantees that no one truly knows what's in them (see the next rule). If you don't know what you own, how can you properly manage risk?

    9. Simple is better than complex :

      Start with a few million mortgages of varying credit-worthiness and create a series of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) from them. Then take the RMBS and stratify them. Then leverage them up into collateral debt obligations (CDOs). Once that bundling is complete, make complex bets on which layers might default, via credit default swaps (CDS).

      Gee, how could anything possibly go wrong with that?!

    10. Stick to your core competency :

      E*Trade (ETFC) is an online broker; what was it doing writing subprime mortgages?

      Why was Bear Stearns running two hedge funds?

      Isn't H&R Block a tax preparer? It was making mortgage loans -- why?

      And exactly what was GM's expertise in underwriting mortgages? (The snarkier among you might be wondering exactly what business GM's expertise is in.)

      Had these companies stuck to what they did best (or least bad), they wouldn't be in as much trouble today.

    11. Fess up! Whenever a company runs into trouble, they seem to take a page from the same PR playbook:

      First, they say nothing. Second, they deny. Finally, they make a begrudging, pitifully small admission. Eventually, the full truth falls out, and the stock tanks with it.

    12. Never forget risk management :

      Consider what could possibly go wrong, and have a plan in place in the event that unlikely possibility comes to pass. If there is to be upside, then there must also be a corresponding and proportional downside.

    13. The trend is your friend:

      Despite the year's parade of horribles, this market cliché was proven true once again. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all higher this year, as their long-term trends have been tested but remain intact.

      The exception, the Russell 2000, broke its trend earlier this year. That made trend traders abandon the small-cap index, which has since fallen even further. This confirms the corollary: "except for the bend at the end." As long as the index trend lines stay intact, investors can sleep easy. But once those trendlines break, well, then you better apply some of the earlier lessons (see numbers 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 12!).

    Looks even truer 8 months later!
Related Posts :
  1. Paul Tudor Jones's Rules of Trading
  2. Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading
  3. Jim Cramer’s 25 Rules of Investing
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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