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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Argentina crisis could have global impact

Chart courtesy of WSJ (Click to enlarge)

Argentina is one of the world’s top five exporters of beef, soy, corn and wheat, and falling prices for those commodities have diminished the government’s main sources of revenue. Commodity prices have fallen as fears of a global slowdown have grown that could impact to reducing demand of commodities. The country spent much of its windfall during this decade’s commodity boom paying off debts and subsidizing fuel and other consumer items to stimulate rapid growth.

Now it may face a struggle to pay some $22.4 billion in debt obligations and other payments due next year. The government said the takeover of the private system, created as an option to state pension funds in 1994, aimed to protect investors from losses due to the global market turmoil.

But economists said the underlying motive of the nationalization of nearly $30 billion in private pension funds is the government needs to plug a gap in financing next year due to driving down tax revenue from falling commodity prices by as much as $6 billion. The move could also be seen as a grab for cash and power amid the global economic crisis. By isolating capital markets, it will probably dampen consumer and investor confidence further.

Will other developing countries take Argentina's lead and re-nationalize their countries pension plans?

Related Posts :
  1. 10/22/2008 - Nouriel Roubini on CNBC this morning
  2. Nouriel Roubini: How to prevent contagion effects of the financial crisis in Hungary
  3. Iceland receives $6 bln rescue package
  4. Will Hungary be the next Iceland?
Sources :
  1. Bloomberg: Brazilian Stocks Fall on Global Growth Concern; Merval Drops, October 22, 2008 15:30 EDT
  2. Deal Book of NYT: Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions, October 22, 2008, 7:52 am
  3. The Wall Street Journal: Argentina Makes Grab for Pensions Amid Crisis, October 22, 2008
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

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10/22/2008 - Nouriel Roubini on CNBC this morning

Here is the points of the interview :
  1. The worst is yet to come.

  2. The next few weeks and months are going to have lots of negative surprises on the economy

  3. The flow of market news is going to be much worse than expected--just like last week when every piece of news was awful

  4. Earnings are going to surprise on the downside. There's going to be a sharp fall in earnings, not just financial sector, but everywhere.

  5. Even in financial system, where we avoided a systemic global financial meltdown by an epsilon, there will be significant risk downward. Emerging markets going into a crisis. Having a blow up of the CDS market. Having hundreds of hedge funds closing down.

  6. So I significant downside risk for the financial markets and economy. I think the worst is yet to come.

CNBC Market Panel on October 22, 2008 part 1(click for video)
    squashboxoctober222008.jpg

    "The worst is still ahead of us"
CNBC: The Unfolding Financial Crisis on October 22, 2008 part 2(click for video)
    cnbcpart310222008.jpg

    "Most important key point is this not just a liquidity crisis, this is a credit and solvency crisis, next time bomb significant increase in default rates for corporates"
CNBC: Wall Street Crisis on October 22, 2008 part 3 (click for video)
    cnbcpart210222008.jpg

    "Keep things in cash"

Related Posts :
  1. Nouriel Roubini: How to prevent contagion effects of the financial crisis in Hungary
  2. The Full Nouriel Roubini Horror Speech
  3. Roubini Warns of Possible Systemic Meltdown, "Severe Global Depression"
Sources :
  1. RGE Monitor: Latest Roubini Talks and Interviews on the Severe Financial Crisis and Recession, October 22, 2008
  2. ClusterStock: Roubini: Worst Is Yet To Come, October 22, 2008 12:00 PM
  3. Calculated Risk: Roubini on CNBC, October 22, 2008 12:16 PM
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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G-Phone goes on sale today for $179 (Update 1)

The new T-Mobile G1 with Google phone is shown at a T-Mobile store in San Francisco, Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2008. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

NEW YORK — Google is jumping into the mobile phone business with its new G1 phone. The G1 is available starting today for $179 with a two-year contract from T-Mobile.

The new gadget features a touch screen, slide-out keyboard and a trackball.

The phone isn’t likely to draw the hype that Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone did, not that it will matter to Google. More important to the Internet search giant is acceptance of the operating system Android than sales of the first phone. The code for Android available to developers through an Apache 2.0 license that lets developers add to the codebase. The open-source mobile device, available thru T-Mobile.


According to Canaccord Adams analyst Collin Gillis, Google wants the developer community to build “nifty gee whiz” applications that make the Android operating system the most attractive one out there. “If people clamor for that, it helps drive the major carriers to offer Android phones and gives Google leadership in mobile search,” said Gillis.

Google is aspiring to become the de facto mobile operating system that manufacturers use, given expectations are high that the mobile Internet could be as big, or even bigger than, the fixed Internet. Android is an open-source software platform, which means the developer community has free reign to design features and applications that will run on the Android-based mobile phones. Android is focused on making great Web access.


The G1 Smartphone is available to consumers in cities where T-Mobile’s 3G service is available including Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York and Seattle. The G1 has a touch screen, a full QERTY keyboard, GPS, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth connectivity. The phone sells for $179 with a two-year contract. The data plan is $25 a month on top of the calling plan.

Related Posts :

Sources :
  1. The Huffington Post: Google's mobile phone goes on sale today for $179, October 22, 2008 07:57 AM EST
  2. Fox Business: Google Launches G1 Phone; Developer Acceptance Key, October 22, 2008
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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OPEC Panics as Oil Plunges

Iran’s oil minister, Gholamhossein Nozari, center, favors a sharp cut in production. “The era of cheap oil is finished,” he said. (Vahid Salemi/Associated Press)

Now, panic is gripping producers as prices drop. Oil is down by half since July, and the speed of the decline has stunned oil-rich governments that have become dependent on high prices.

As the global economy continues to weaken, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces its toughest test in years.

The problem for the oil exporters, who meet for an emergency session in Vienna on Friday, is to find a way to stop the price drop at a time when oil consumption is falling markedly in industrialized countries. Even the Chinese economy, long the biggest engine of growth for oil demand, seems to be cooling.

Most analysts expect the group to announce a production cut of at least a million barrels a day, which would be more than 1 percent of the world oil supply. Some experts warn that if the cartel took too much oil off the market, it could push prices up so much as to worsen the global economic crisis.

Oil workers in the desert fields of Sakhir, Bahrain, in the Persian Gulf. OPEC could slash output in an effort to stop crude's downward price spiral. (AP Photo/Hasan Jamali)

“OPEC’s problem is they don’t know how much demand is falling,” said Jan Stuart, an energy economist at UBS. “So the risk they run is either they don’t do enough, or they do too much. That’s a tough choice.”

Related Post :
Source :
Please Note!
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10/22/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade (Update 1)

Broadcom (BRCM) upgraded by Robert W. Baird
    Robert W. Baird upgraded Broadcom to Outperform from Neutral, as they expect the company to gain market share in mobile phones, IPTV, and digital TVs. The firm set a target of $23. However, Kaufman Bros. slashed their target to $17 from $23. The firm thinks the company has good revenue opportunities, but they are still concerned that demand for the company's products is weak. Broadcom's stock jumped $1.63, or 11.81%, to $15.43 in early trading.

Dominos Pizza Inc. (DPZ) upgraded by Sidoti

Flir Systems (FLIR) upgraded by BB&T to Buy from Hold

Middleburg Financial Corporation (MBRG) upgraded by Davenport

Jefferies upgraded shares of Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $100 from $95 on increased likelihood of an acquisition after Roche (OTC: RHHBY) reaffirmed commitment to its $100/share offer.

Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Outperform from Market Perform as they see limited earnings risk and an attractive risk/reward.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was raised to Buy from Add at Calyon.

Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.

Goldman upgraded AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) to Neutral from Sell and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) to Buy from Neutral.

Fitch Downgrades The McClatchy Company (MNI) On Revenue, Earnings Pressure
    Fitch Ratings on Wednesday downgraded the issuer default rating of McClatchy Co. to B- from B+ because of continued revenue pressure and earnings decline. Fitch also lowered the company's senior secured credit facility to B+/RR2 from BB+/RR1, its senior secured term loan to B+/RR2 from BB+/RR1, and its senior unsecured notes/debentures to CCC/RR6 from B/RR5. The outlook is negative. The ratings affect about $2.1 billion in debt. "Over the longer term, Fitch continues to anticipate that MNI will be challenged to generate meaningful and consistent revenue growth and remains cautious regarding newspaper companies' prospects for capturing and monetizing the significant volume of advertising dollars that are migrating toward the internet," Fitch said in a statement. (Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc.)

POZEN, Inc. (POZN) downgraded by Wachovia

Millicom International Cellular SA (MICC) downgraded by Davenport from strong buy to buy

Coventry Health (CVH) downgraded by Merrill Lynch to Underperform from Buy
Target to $21 from $32.

Gentex Corp. (GNTX) downgraded by Buckingham
Target price $6

STMicroelectronics NV (STM) downgraded by Natixis

Related Posts :
  1. 10/21/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade
  2. Fed Raises Interest Rate Paid For Excess Bank Reserves
  3. 10/22/2008 Market opened by fears
Source :
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Fed Raises Interest Rate Paid For Excess Bank Reserves

From Fox Business:
    WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised the interest rate that it pays to banks who keep excess reserves at the central bank. The new rate will be the federal funds target rate less 0.35 percentage points. The old formula was the fed funds rate less 0.75 percentage points. The Fed said that the narrower spread "would help foster trading in the funds market at rates closer to the target rate." The Fed said it would make further adjustments to the rate as needed.

    Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc.

Related Posts :
  1. 10/22/2008 Market opened by fears
  2. US stocks opened lower, Canada tumbled 3%, Bank of Canada cuts key rate by 25bp
Sources :
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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10/22/2008 Market opened by fears (Update 2)

Chart courtesy of http://finance.google.com


Asia Crash!

The Nikkei 225 Average fell 6.2% to 8725.75 in late trading, after rising for three straight sessions, and the broader Topix index gave up 5.9% to 900.4. South Korea's Kospi dropped 6.8% to 1114.59, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 3.4% to 4156.10, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was 2.86% lower at 14610.49 and Shanghai's Composite Index was down 2% at 1919.18.

FTSE 100 was down 182.62 points, or 4.3%

Image courtesy of Telegraph.co.uk

The FTSE 100 was down 182.62 points, or 4.3%, to 4047.11 in midday trading, erasing the week's earlier gains.

The slide in stocks was accompanied by a dramatic fall in the value of the pound, after Bank governor Mervyn King told business leaders last night that it was likely the UK is going into a recession. He also said that the country is in the midst of the worst financial crisis in living memory, and the road to recovery will be a long and slow one.

Copper tumbled below $2 a pound for the first time since December 2005 amid speculation the world economy is headed for a recession that will reduce demand.

Banks share fell again, led by Royal Bank of Scotland, which slumped 13pc to 69.2p, and Standard Chartered dropped 8.1p% to 953p.

Mining shares were also among the biggest fallers, as metals prices dropped on the expectation a global slowdown in manufacturing will hurt demand.

Copper miner Kazakhmys fell 10% to 273.75p and Anglo-Australian commodities giant BHP Billiton lost 8.2% to 888p. Xstrata also declined 8% to 985p.

Demand worries also sent the price of oil down below $70 a barrel again. Crude was down 2.3 to $69.41 in New York at lunchtime. That sent shares of BP down 3.6%. The CAC in Paris was down 3.7%, while the DAX in Germany fell 2.9%.

Wachovia Severes $23.7 Billion Loss

Wachovia employees listen to a recent speech by the CEO. (Chris Keane/Reuters)

According to Bloomberg, Wachovia Corp., the bank being acquired by Wells Fargo & Co., reported a record quarterly loss as mortgage markets crumbled and business customers withdrew a fourth of their deposits.

The third-quarter loss was $23.9 billion. The loss included an $18.7 billion impairment charge that reflected lower market values and terms of the Wells Fargo transaction. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo anticipated the writedowns and charges in making the purchase, Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins said in the statement. Writing down the value of Wachovia's past acquisitions won't affect Wells Fargo's plan to raise $20 billion, he said.

Wells Fargo said it expects $74 billion in losses and writedowns from Wachovia's $498 billion portfolio, including $32 billion in option-adjustable-rate mortgages and $24 billion in commercial loans. It plans to offset the markdowns by raising the $20 billion by selling shares and by cutting $5 billion in annual expenses.

Investors' losses up to 90% of $1.2 trillion CDO as the failures of Lehman

According to Bloomberg, Investors are taking losses of up to 90 percent in the $1.2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations tied to corporate credit as the failures of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Icelandic banks send shockwaves through the global financial system.

The losses among banks, insurers and money managers may spark the next round of writedowns on CDOs after $660 billion in subprime-related losses. They may force lenders to post more reserves against losses after governments worldwide announced $3 trillion in financial-industry rescue packages since last month, according to Barclays Capital.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual Inc. and the three banks in Iceland prompted Susquehanna Bancshares Inc., a Lititz, Pennsylvania-based lender, to lower the value of $20 million in so-called synthetic CDOs by almost 88 percent last week.

Some synthetic CDOs, tied to credit-default swaps on corporate bonds, are trading at less than 10 cents on the dollar now. About $254 billion of CDOs tied to mortgages for borrowers with poor credit histories have defaulted. Downgrades of corporate CDOs will force investors to boost capital, according to an Oct. 17 report from Barclays Capital analysts.

Fitch downgraded 422 classes of CDOs on Oct. 13 after seven financial companies defaulted or were bailed out since September. The company didn't disclose the total number of classes it rated. The downgrades force payment of the credit-default swaps packaged in the debt, causing losses for investors or eroding capital.

Hungary raises the benchmark rate by 3% points to boost its currency

Hungary raised its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points in emergency interest rate hike to stabilize the country's currency, hurt by the financial crisis, raising the possibility that other countries in the region could follow its lead. According to Bloomberg, it's the biggest increase in five years.

``The forint remains under extremely strong speculative pressure,'' Prime Minister Gyurcsany told reporters in Budapest today. ``The government will intervene if that becomes necessary to protect the Hungarian economy.' Hungary is scrambling to shield its markets from being engulfed by the global financial crisis that erased more than $25 billion from equities in 2008. Central banks from London and Frankfurt to Washington and Hong Kong two weeks ago reduced interest rates after yearlong credit-market seizure stoked concern banks will run short of money.

The increase is an ``extreme decision'' that may backfire and further damage prospects for economic growth, said Bartosz Pawlowski, an economist at Toronto Dominion Bank in London. He said emerging market currencies were weakening today across the board and may not be linked to interest rate levels.

Related Posts :
  1. Lehman's CDS settlement has been success
  2. Iceland receives $6 bln rescue package
  3. Nouriel Roubini: How to prevent contagion effects of the financial crisis in Hungary
  4. US stocks opened lower, Canada tumbled 3%, Bank of Canada cuts key rate by 25bp
Sources :
  1. Bloomberg: Wachovia Loses $23.9 Billion on Real-Estate Charges (Update2), October 22, 2008 10:00 EDT
  2. The Wall Street Journal: Nikkei's 6.8% Fall Leads Asia Lower, October 22, 2008 6:15 A.M. ET
  3. Bloomberg: CDO Cuts Show $1 Trillion Corporate-Debt Bets Toxic (Update1), October 22, 2008 05:28 EDT
  4. Bloomberg: Hungary Raises Benchmark Rate to Defend Its Currency (Update3), October 22, 2008 09:13 EDT
  5. Telegraph.co.uk: FTSE declines on recession fears, commodities, October 22, 2008 03:39PM BST
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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Lehman's CDS settlement has been success

Workers cleared out of the offices of Lehman Brothers in New York last month.(Joshua Lott/Reuters)
Photo courtesy of The New York Times

From Marketwatch:
    The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. will issue a statement when the settlement is completed, according to spokeswoman Melanie Best. She declined to comment on timing.
    Payments under these derivatives contracts have to be made by the close of business Tuesday.

    The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the group that represents swaps dealers, issued a statement just before 6 p.m. Eastern noting the "success" of the Lehman settlement.

    "Today's settlement demonstrates that the industry infrastructure for [credit-default swaps] clearly works," said Robert Pickel, chief executive of the ISDA.

    The exchange between the buyers and sellers of credit-default swaps, a type of derivative contract that pays out when a company reneges on its debt, spooked markets Tuesday. Some investors worriedsellers would be unable to come up with the cash to pay their counterparties, and these no-shows would usher in a new round of bank or fund failures.
    This type of domino effect turned what started as a U.S. housing-market collapse into a global credit crisis.

    "Settlement of Lehman's CDS is what has the market on the nervous side," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, said earlier Tuesday about the credit-default swaps. The major U.S. stock indexes briefly scaled back declines late in the session after reports that counterparties had closed the swaps settlement without a hitch.
Meanwhile John Carney of ClusterStock wrote, "But don't get too excited about this yet. Even if fears of losses were exaggerated we won't know the true cost for several months. Most probably won't be public until companies post fourth quarter earnings."

While there is now only $40 billion or so of United States leveraged buyout-related loans stuck on bank balance sheets — a sixth of last year’s peak — another overhang threatens. S.& P. estimates that hedge funds and structured investment vehicles hold $50 billion in loans they might be forced to sell.

That dam may already be cracking. The volume of loan portfolios sold in the first three weeks of October has already beaten the previous monthly record. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, almost certainly didn’t anticipate the global panic that swept over the financial system after Lehman went bust, causing other banks to tumble like dominoes. And clearly in the ensuing conflagration shareholders and speculators have been burned. Taxpayers across the world have also had to pledge more than $2 trillion to rescue the industry.

Related Posts :
  1. $365 bln of Lehman CDS is going to be settled tomorrow
  2. 10/21/2008 Market Recap - Lehman CDS Settlements & Dispointed Earnings
Sources :
  1. Marketwatch: Lehman default swaps still pending, DTCC says, October 21, 2008 11:42 pm EDT
  2. ClusterStock: Lehman Swap Settlement Goes Better Than Expected, October 21, 08 4:35 pm
  3. The New York Times: Was Lehman Loss All That Bad?, October 21
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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10/21/2008 Market Recap - Lehman CDS Settlements & Dispointed Earnings

Chart courtesy of http://finance.google.com


U.S. stocks dramatically scaled back losses as investors breathed a sigh of relief over the settlement of Lehman Brothers credit default swaps "with no loss allocations imposed," according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. There were a huge amount of redemptions both on the hedge fund side and the mutual fund side that were driving that in the darkest of days. Investors now have more time to evaluate stocks on merit. It's a more or less a normal reaction to company-specific news.

The markets fluctuated between steep losses and minor gains throughout the session before ending near the lowest levels of the day. Earnings worries were most evident in tech stocks, sending the Nasdaq Composite down by more than 4%. Fears that tech companies will struggle to make money amid a potential recession and an ongoing credit crisis were bolstered after a series of companies reported weak forecasts, including Sun Microsystems (JAVA: 4.77, -1.01, -17.47%), Logitech (LOGI: 15.53, -2.74, -14.99%) and Texas Instruments (TXN: 16.85, -1.13, -6.28%).

There was also significant apprehension ahead of scheduled earnings reports from tech heavyweights Apple (AAPL: 91.49, -6.95, -7.06%) and Yahoo! (YHOO: 12.07, -0.79, -6.14%), which were slated to reveal results after Tuesday's closing bell.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve pledged $540 billion to make sure they really are. In another bold gambit to restore confidence in the financial system, the Fed announced that it would provide a backstop for the short-term debt that many money-market funds hold. The central bank will buy certificates of deposit and certain types of commercial paper from the funds, in hopes of restoring the free flow of credit and easing worries about the investments. It is the third program of its kind that the Fed has announced this month. The Fed has created a Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), "which will support a private-sector initiative designed to provide liquidity to U.S. money market investors," the Fed announced Tuesday.

The MMIFF joins other facilities established by the Fed: the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) and the Asset Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF). Earlier, the Fed established the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF).

Lehman collapse is a rare occurrence that shattered confidence in the usually serene world of money funds, which hold about $3.45 trillion in assets, according to iMoneyNet, a research firm. The subsequent flood of redemption requests eventually reached about $500 billion, according to the Fed.

Related Posts :
  1. 10/21/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade
  2. Will the Fed follow Canada to reduction the interest rate below market expectation?
  3. US stocks opened lower, Canada tumbled 3%, Bank of Canada cuts key rate by 25bp
  4. $365 bln of Lehman CDS is going to be settled tomorrow
  5. 10/20/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade
  6. 10/20/2008 - Long & Short Ideas for Tuesday
  7. 10/20/2008 Market Recap - Positive Signs in Credit Market
Sources :
  1. AOL Money & Finance: Stocks end lower amid mixed earnings reports, October 21, 2008 18:03 EDT
  2. Fox Business: Earnings Drag Dow Down 231 Points, October 21, 2008
  3. Fox Business: U.S. Stocks Trim Declines On Lehman CDS Settlements, October 21, 2008
  4. Blogging Stocks: Fed creates new facility to assist money market funds, October 21, 2008
  5. Bloomberg: Fed to Provide Up to $540 Billion to Aid Money Funds (Update6), October 21, 2008
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


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