According to The Journal, Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey cut his estimate for Apple's 2009 profit, warning "some nicks have started to emerge." Mr. Bailey warned the company faces "a tougher environment" in the first two quarters of next year, when he believes consumer demand will further deteriorate.
Here is from the Wall Street Journal:
Sales of Macs in U.S. stores last month declined 1% from a year ago, while industry-wide PC sales rose 2%, according to research firm NPD Group Inc., which tracks retail sales.
NPD analyst Steve Baker blamed a 35% drop in sales of desktop Macs, noting growth in Apple's laptops still outpaced rivals.
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The November data indicate that falling prices for Windows-based PCs, and the rise of low-priced computers like netbooks -- mini notebooks that cost as little as $300 -- have finally tripped Apple
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Apple has steered away from the low-margin netbook market in favor of higher-end computers. "We don't know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk," Mr. Jobs said in October when the company reported earnings.
Apple rivals like H-P and Dell offered discounts weeks earlier than usual this holiday season, dropping some prices by as much as 50%. Mr. Munster said since last December, the average Windows PC price is down 35% to 45%; in contrast, Apple has offered only modest discounts of 5% to 10% on its PCs, analysts said.
The strategy translates to a big bite into consumers' wallets. On Amazon.com last week, an H-P Pavilion laptop with a 14.1-inch screen was marked down from $1,074 to $760. In contrast, an Apple MacBook with a 13.3-inch screen, less memory and less storage capacity was $966, just $33 below its list price.
Apple has also held the line on its desktop iMac lineup, which starts at $1,199. Meanwhile, Dell's all-in-one XPS One desktop machines start at $899.
In October, Apple lowered the price of its entry-level white MacBook laptop to $999 from $1,099 and refreshed its main MacBook line by packing higher-end features -- like an aluminum frame and better graphics performance -- into models starting at $1,299.
The withering economy has weighed heavily on PC sales. Earlier this month, research firm IDC lowered its 2009 PC growth forecast, saying revenue would fall 5.3% from this year. Earlier, IDC had estimated 4.5% revenue growth.
Piper Jaffray's Mr. Munster said he expects the company to recover in coming months, and said he is maintaining his prediction that Apple next year will increase shipments by 10%, while the rest of the industry falls 5%.
Shaw Wu, an analyst at Kaufman Brothers, expects Apple to sell 2.7 million computers in the current quarter ending in late December, a 17% increase from a year ago. He expects industry-wide PC shipments this quarter to be about 85 million.
Despite short-term weakness, analysts expect Apple's products to remain more profitable than many rivals' computers. The MacBooks are forecast to deliver close to 20% profit margins, compared with 6% or less for competitors, said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein & Co.
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Sources :
- The Wall Street Journal: Apple Loses Some Shine as Mac Sales Slow, December 16, 2008
- BloggingStocks: Apple (AAPL): Back to $50, December 16, 2008 3:57AM
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