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Monday, November 10, 2008

Nouriel Roubini on CNBC: Bankruptcy File and The US Financial Crisis

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
November 10, 2008

CBNC (Nov 10, 2008) Circuit City Files for Chapter 11(click for video)

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CNBC (Nov 10, 2008): New Economy Task Force (click for Video)

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CNBC (Nov. 10, 2008): Market Task Force (click for video)

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CNBC (Nov. 10, 2008) Parting Shoots (click for video)

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From CNBC:
The economy will worsen in the coming months and cause the market to fall another 20 to 25 percent in the United States and abroad, said Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.

There's going to be negative growth all the way to the end of 2009," he said. “The surprises from now are going to be on the downside, for the economy, for earnings, for the financial system."

Job losses will accelerate in the next months, Roubini said, and he expects a weak economic recovery in the short and mid-term.

“There's going to be a very slow recovery, because you have the financial system that's impaired; earnings are not going to grow very fast, and therefore the stock market will go sideways for quite a while,” he said.

More Economic News on CNBC.com:
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[Video] Marc Faber: Corporate Bonds `More Attractive' Than Stocks

Bloomberg News Video
November 10, 2008

Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," and Charles Maxwell, an analyst for Weeden & Co., talk with Bloomberg's Pimm Fox in New York about the outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market, Federal Reserve monetary policy and commodity prices.




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[Video] Scott Lennon: Australia Cut Rates 50 Basis Points in December

Bloomberg News Video
November 10, 2008

Scott Lennon, partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, talks with Bloomberg's Paul Gordon from Sydney about the Australian government's fiscal stimulus package aimed at boosting growth in the nation's economy, and outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy. Business confidence plunged last month to a record low, suggesting the economy may fall into a recession for the first time since 1991.



ETFs/Stocks :
    iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund ETF  EWA  $14.83  -0.72 (-4.63%)
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[Video] Metals Outlook: Gold Rising on China Stimulus Plan

Bloomberg Video
November 10, 2008 10:41 am EST

A Gold Rally - Analysis and Discussion with George Gero of RBC Capital Markets.



ETFs/Stocks :
    SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)  73.58  +1.08 (1.49%)
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AIG got a $150 bln government rescue package


AIG Gets Expanded Bailout - Interview with CEO Edward Liddy


AIG got a $150 billion government rescue package, almost doubling the initial bailout of less than two months ago as the insurer burns through cash at a record rate. The Amount meets the expectation that AIG may get $150 bln expanded bailout.

AIG will get lower interest rates and $40 billion of new capital from the government to help ease the impact of four straight quarterly deficits, including a $24.5 billion third- quarter loss posted today by the New York-based company.

The first rescue plan wasn't sustainable, Liddy said during a conference call today. AIG's third-quarter loss equaled $9.05 a share and compared with profit of $3.09 billion, or $1.19, a year earlier, AIG said in a statement. Losses in the past year erased profit from 14 previous quarters dating back to 2004.

To improve AIG's chances of repaying its debts, the U.S. will reduce the $85 billion loan to $60 billion, buy $40 billion of preferred shares, and purchase $52.5 billion of mortgage securities owned or backed by the company, the Federal Reserve said today in a separate statement.

To maintain stability of the financial market, The U.S. also seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, lenders that guarantee or own about 40 percent of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages, in September. The next month, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unveiled a $250 billion program to recapitalize banks.

The new AIG package includes a freeze on the bonus pool for 70 top executives and imposed limits on severance benefits, the Treasury said in its statement. Lawmakers had said failing companies getting taxpayer bailouts shouldn't be using the money for multimillion-dollar pay packages.

AIG guaranteed about $372 billion of fixed-income investments as of Sept. 30, compared with $441 billion three months earlier. AIG booked more than $7 billion in writedowns during the quarter on the value of the swaps.

The New York Fed also will lend as much as $22.5 billion to a new limited-liability company to fund the purchase of residential mortgage-backed securities from AIG's U.S. securities-lending collateral portfolio. AIG will make a $1 billion subordinated loan to the new entity and bear the risk for the first $1 billion of any losses, the Fed said. The securities lending operation and the previous $37.8 billion credit line from the Fed will be shut down.

Securities lending accounted for $11.7 billion, or about two-thirds, of the $18.3 billion in impaired investments in the third quarter, AIG said.

Edward Liddy, AIG's CEO, plans to sell life insurance operations in the U.S., Europe and Japan, along with the firm's reinsurer, airplane lessor, consumer finance unit and asset manager. The former CEO of Allstate Corp. was appointed by the U.S. as a condition of AIG's bailout. Liddy said he expects to announce ``several'' unit sales in the fourth quarter.

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Earning Preview: The TJX Companies

By TheFlyOnTheWall

The TJX Companies (TJX) is expected to report Q3 earnings before market open Tuesday Nov. 11, with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET.
Guidance

Analysts are looking for a profit of 56c on revenue of $4.62B. The consensus range for revenue is $4.57B to $4.65B, according to First Call. The company recently revised its Q3 EPS guidance to "slightly below" the previous view of 55c to 58c and reported that its October same-store sales fell -6% vs. Retail Metrics estimate of -0.4%. The retailer said its October results were hurt by the "precipitous drop" in foreign currency exchange rates versus the dollar although traffic is up at most of its divisions and it's gaining market share.
Analyst Views

Consumers have cut back spending on discretionary items and are spending at wholesale clubs and discount apparel chains. William Blair analyst Daniel Hofkin said last month that TJX has an advantage over competitors in its buying scale and prowess. The analyst said that in addition to its strong focus on financial returns and buying discipline, the company is able to attract shoppers during challenging economic periods "owing to the significant savings its stores offer on mid-range and premium apparel" and other items, and keep a "significant portion" of those customers in stronger economic periods.

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[Video] Dollar Will Benefit Long-Term From Further Deleveraging

Bloomberg Video
November 10, 08:42 am EST

G20 Nations Met This Weekend - Analysis and Discussion with Meg Browne of Brown Brothers Harriman.



ETFs/Stocks :
    PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish  UUP  $26.37  -0.10 (-0.38%)
    PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish UDN $24.90 +0.09 (+0.36%)
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Merrill Lynch : Australia is the most vulnerable to economic crisis, Swiss in 2nd rank

XinHua
November 10, 2008 19:31

Israel's economy is less susceptible to risk than other developed countries such as the United States, Canada and the Euro Bloc, local daily Ha'aretz reported Monday on its website, citing a Merrill Lynch report.

According to the financial firm's report on the financial and economic vulnerability of 44 nations, Israel is only the 24th most vulnerable.

In a surprise reversal, Australia is considered the most vulnerable, due to a huge influx of foreign capital over the past five years, said the Merrill Lynch report.

Switzerland ranks number two, with the United States in 10th place and non-Western countries such as Mexico and Nigeria as the least vulnerable.

Less developed nations export less and have much less leveraged financial systems, though low foreign currency reserves and exposure to globalization can raise a country's riskiness, according to Merrill Lynch.

ETFs/Stocks :
    iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund ETF  EWL     $17.78  +0.67 (3.93%)
    iShares MSCI Australia Index Index Fund ETF EWA $15.55 +0.66 (4.43%)
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China Gov is urged to intervene into stock market to tackle the irrational performances

Former Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission Zhou Zhengqing openly suggested thrice in ten days that the country should launch a buffer fund to correct what he called the irrational fluctuation of the domestic stock market.

The buffer fund, also known as the intervention fund, is a kind of state-raised fund used to rescue the stock market from irrational performances, such as a nosedive in share prices or overheating.

Investors react as they sit in front of an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in the financial district of Beijing November 10, 2008. China's stock market surged to a two-week high and turnover expanded on Monday after the government announced a major stimulus package for the economy. The world's fourth-largest economy launched a huge stimulus plan worth 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) focused largely on infrastructure and social projects, that they hope will kick off what could be a round of big spending or interest rate cuts by leading economies to stave off a recession in many countries. REUTERS/David Gray (CHINA)

"The current market slump falls out of line with the country's economic development, which remains on a healthy track. It's time the government take effective measures to secure the investors' confidence as well as stabilize the market," said Zhou in a latest speech concerning the buffer fund on Sunday.

Zhou, also vice director of the Financial and Economic Committee under the 10th National People's Congress, said governmental intervention is necessary as many problems could not be solved by financial markets alone.

A report submitted at the end of October by the Research Center of International Finance with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences contained even more specific suggestion concerning the buffer fund issue, according to Monday's China Securities Journal.

The government should establish a buffer fund worth 600 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan to purchase 50 heavyweight stocks on the market before Chinese shares fall to 1,500 points, the report said.

But this kind of policies turned out to be not strong enough to stabilize the market, according to Cao Fengqi, head of Research Center for Finance and Securities of Peking University. To launch a buffer fund is the only effective way to rally market confidence.


ETFs/Stocks :
    iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF         FXI  $25.60  + 2.91 ( 12.83%)
    UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshares ETF FXP $76.32 -25.67 (-25.17%)
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AIG may get more than $150 bln bailout; Allianz pressure continues

American International Group Inc. (AIG) may get an expanded government rescue package valued at more than $150 billion that includes lower interest rates and more time to repay the debt. AIG guaranteed $441 billion of fixed-income investments for counterparties, including banks, as of June 30.

The U.S. will reduce the original $85 billion loan that saved New York-based AIG in September to $60 billion, buy $40 billion of preferred shares, and purchase $52.5 billion of mortgage securities owned or backed by the company, according to a person familiar with the matter. The funds will help AIG retire part of its credit-default swap holdings and bolster its securities lending operations, said the person, who declined to be identified because the plan hasn't been officially announced.

The changes may give Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy more time to salvage AIG, which needed U.S. help to escape bankruptcy after three quarterly losses exceeding $18 billion. Liddy's plan to repay the original loan by selling units stalled as plunging financial markets cut into their value and forced potential buyers to shore up their own balance sheets.

Protesters stand behind former AIG CEO Martin Sullivan after
he testified at the U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee
hearing on the cause and effects of the AIG bailout
on Capitol Hill October 7, 2008. REUTERS/Larry Downing (UNITED STATES)

In addition to the $85 billion loan on Sept. 16, AIG got two government credit lines totaling $58.7 billion last month to cover losses, including $37.8 billion for securities lending.

Now, the two-year, $85 billion loan AIG received on Sept. 16 will be changed to $60 billion that must be repaid in five years. AIG will pay interest of 3 percent, rather than the original 8.5 percent, plus the London interbank offered rate, on amounts the firm borrows.

On amounts AIG doesn't draw down, it will pay interest of 0.75 percent, as opposed to 8.5 percent under the earlier agreement, the person said. AIG investors had complained the rates were so high that they almost guaranteed the company wouldn't have a chance to recover.

AIG gets another $40 billion from the Treasury's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. In exchange for the cash, the government receives preferred shares that pay 10 percent annual interest.

AIG could have raised $115 billion by disposing of all its units, Thomas Gallagher, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, estimated in September.

While Allianz SE said Monday it marked down €650 million ($829.6 million) on its Dresdner Bank unit's asset-backed securities trading book in the third quarter, and warned of more pressure on its continuing operations.

"The challenging and volatile conditions in financial markets continue to impact our asset accumulation businesses," Allianz said. "Further impairments are therefore expected, hitting operating profit especially in the life/health”.

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China’s Stimulus Plan could drive pulling back in metal and basic material ETFs

China bailout to its industries and consumers will prevent the economic slowdown and maintain the annual growth. That means China’s industries demand to raw materials will sustain. I see it will be positive to the following ETF sectors, chart courtesy of Stockchart (click the image to enlarge):

PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) closed down -0.28 (-2.00%) to $13.72 last Friday.


Market Vectors-Coal ETF (KOL) closed up +0.67 (4.37%) to $16.01 last Friday.


Materials SPDR ETF (XLB) closed up +0.40 (1.63%) to $24.87 last Friday.


SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) closed up +0.79 (2.96%) to $27.49 last Friday.


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Fitch Downgrades Several Emerging Markets

Fitch Ratings cut its debt ratings for four Eastern European countries and downgraded the outlook for Russia, South Korea and Mexico as the global slowdown spreads to emerging economies.

Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Romania had their sovereign ratings cut as part of a review of 17 emerging-market economies, Fitch said in a statement today. The outlooks for Chile, Malaysia and South Africa were also lowered.

The U.S., Japan and the euro zone will all shrink next year, the International Monetary Fund said last week, weakening demand for goods exported from developing nations. The global financial crisis is also making it more difficult for emerging economies to attract foreign capital, putting a strain on their currencies and finances and prompting countries including Hungary and Pakistan to ask the IMF for loans.

The risks of economic and financial stress that could undermine sovereign creditworthiness have risen.

Moreover, Emerging Europe is the ``most vulnerable'' to worsening global financial and economic conditions because of its high debt and current-account deficits, Fitch said.

Hungary's long-term, foreign-currency rating was cut one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, in light of ``the severity of the recession'' and ``foreign-currency mismatches in the private sector,'' Fitch said. Still, it added that the country's $20 billion in IMF-led support ``largely removed external financing and liquidity risks.''

Bulgaria's one-level cut to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, reflects ``the increasing risk of a recession in response to a marked decline in external financing flows,'' Fitch said.

Russia's outlook was revised to ``negative'' because ``room for policy maneuver is constrained by the risk of deposit and capital flight, the systemic weakness of the banking system and relatively high inflation.'' The country still maintains an ``exceptionally strong balance sheet,'' Fitch said.

South Korea's outlook was also cut to ``negative,'' on concern the country's foreign-exchange reserves may decline as the nation faces the biggest crisis since it needed an IMF bailout in 1997.

Malaysia's outlook worsened to ``stable'' from ``positive,'' reflecting the drop in commodity prices and weakening demand for the nation's electronics exports, Fitch said. Mexico's was cut to ``negative'' because of a U.S. recession, reduced capital flows and lower oil prices.

Fitch affirmed the ratings of Brazil, China, India, Peru, Poland, Taiwan and Thailand.


ETFs/Stocks :
    UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF)  EEV  $85.84  -16.41 (-16.05%)
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It’s now hedge funds' turn on Capitol Hill

Click the image to enlarge


Now when Hedge Funds are suffering they want the government to do something about it. Here is a summary from The Wall Street Journal:

Philip Falcone, Kenneth Griffin, John Paulson, James Simons and George Soros on Thursday are expected go before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. They will have several minutes each to make opening remarks, then will field questions from lawmakers.

For these executives, who have been tapped to speak for the industry, it probably won't be an entirely pleasant experience. "We've been under fire for a while," said Richard Baker, head of the U.S. hedge-fund industry's biggest lobbying group, the Managed Funds Association, in Washington. The firms represented at this week's hearing belong to the association.

The committee plans to ask the executives whether their firms, which are some of the most powerful in the business, and others like them pose systemic risks to the markets because of big trades and the vast sums of money they borrow from banks.
Mr. Baker and others say hedge funds aren't responsible for the failure of Wall Street institutions and the loose home-lending standards that helped create the financial crisis. But these managers likely will face suggestions that they and their hedge-fund peers contributed to problems, or at least profited amid the troubles of millions of Americans.

Already, momentum is building to monitor hedge-fund activities more closely and curtail some trading activities, through greater regulatory oversight and lower borrowing limits, industry insiders said. Recently, hedge-fund managers lost loopholes in the federal tax law that allowed them to postpone for years paying taxes on certain profits. At the same time, hedge funds were crippled in September by temporary limits on their ability to bet against hundreds of financial stocks, or short selling, in what was seen as an ineffective effort to protect those stocks from declines.

The funds also face new rules on how they value hard-to-sell assets.

Regardless of how long economic troubles persist, Congress may seek in the next year to require all hedge funds above a certain size -- say, with $25 million or more in assets -- to register with federal regulators. Registration means regularly scheduled examinations and more government oversight of risk controls and behavior in stock, debt and derivatives markets. Right now, registration is voluntary.

Meanwhile, the Managed Funds Association and other organizations representing hedge funds are spending record amounts lobbying, according to industry insiders. Having five of the best-known and wealthiest investment managers together publicly before Congress is unprecedented for the roughly $1.8 trillion hedge-fund industry, which has been losing assets as investors withdraw money and has seen assets shrink in value amid market turbulence.

Given the outlook for the economy and continued market woes, hedge-fund managers could be called to Washington again soon. "I suspect my industry will be brought before the Congress in the next 12 to 18 months with some regularity," said Mr. Baker, a former Louisiana congressman.


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Ben Bernanke: the U.S. faces “a very serious too-big-to-fail problem.”

Summarized from Roy C. Smith's Commentary,
Co-author of “Global Banking”
A Finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
(The opinions expressed are his own.)


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told the Economic Club of New York that the U.S. faces “a very serious too-big-to-fail problem.”
As Bernanke described it, this means that the insolvency of one large company could threaten the global financial system. “There are too many firms that are, in some sense, systematically critical,” he said.

He knew this, of course, because the world financial system did collapse, or came pretty close.

While A summit of the European Union had pledged more than $2 trillion to rescue banks, included a call from U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown for a restoration of the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. It’s a globally coordinated effort to impose more stringent regulation on financial companies to avoid the excesses that plunge the world into economic turmoil every few years.

It’s not too early to think about a framework for what a new financial regulatory system must do, and how it would perform. Here are a few components of the framework:
    Global Rules

  1. Any new system will need to be global, so the nations that have adopted the Basel Accord, hosted by the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland, would be a good place to begin. The first Basel agreement in 1988, however, applied only to commercial banks and focused on bank-capital adequacy. The Basel system hasn’t served us well because it didn’t fully account for sudden losses of market liquidity. Plus, it was too tolerant of risks collateralized by mortgages and other assets.
    Basel II, which went into effect in 2004, needs to be set aside in the immediate search for a replacement, which will have to address the shortcomings of the system that failed.

  2. As Bernanke said, there are many large financial companies whose failure might place the entire system at risk. All of them -- such as Goldman Sachs Groups Inc., Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS AG -- need to be included within the purview of a new, beefed-up regulatory framework.
    Broader Definition
    Banks, thrifts, investment banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and asset-management groups must be included if they are judged too big to fail -- those companies with $1 trillion or more in assets and that trade in global capital markets. There will be resistance from such companies, about 30 to 40 in all, but it must be done by all countries subscribing to the system.

  3. Regulators need to agree on what they want to regulate: This should be all forms of risks that might threaten a company. The system will need to look at all risks that the regulators regard as appropriate, and they must do so on a forward-looking basis using forecasts and projections.

  4. Risks to monitor should include inadequacy of controls, excessive growth, compensation systems, asset concentration and leverage. These should be measured by a common accounting system that offers little wiggle room for determining reported asset values, and that severely limits off-balance-sheet parking of assets or contingent liabilities.

  5. More Power

  6. National regulators must have greater authority to block acquisitions and limit growth and leverage if they believe these increase a company’s systemic-risk potential. This would be a judgment call by the regulator on the scene, which could be appealed to a regulator-in-chief. The power of the regulators to blow the whistle on individual companies must be asserted and defended. This was the case 20 years ago when U.S. commercial banks were last in crisis.

  7. The regulator-in-chief must be a new entity that supplements existing regulators, and include professionals from federal banking authorities, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its job would be only to regulate too-big-to-fail companies.
    Many large financial companies might object to what they regard as harsh regulations. But there is a new business model available that might prove to be better and more durable than the one they have followed for years.

This new model would provide a large, stable market share, cheap funding, and opportunities for full use of technology to lower operating costs. Companies could offer investors steady growth, less risk and perhaps higher dividends. As a bonus, they might even offer the higher returns generated by investment banking, trading or proprietary investment through units that could be spun off to shareholders.

Other banks might escape the tougher regulation by shrinking or breaking up into smaller enterprises with assets of less than $1 trillion, gaining more freedom to operate with less-stringent regulation.

It seems a fair choice.

(Roy C. Smith, co-author of “Global Banking,” is a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. The opinions expressed are his own.)

ETFs/Stocks :
    Ultra Financials ProShares             UYG    $8.53  +0.52 ( 6.49%)
    ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF) SKF $137.85 -6.48 (-4.49%)
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[Video] IMF forecasts contractions in U.S. Europe and Japan next year

Bloomberg Video
November 10, 2008 12:20 am EST

IMF forecasts contractions in U.S. Europe and Japan next year; Obama says stimulus package is 'first thing i get done,' in office; Obama will need 18 months to turn economy round, Columbia Uni's Stiglitz says; Analysis by Martin Schultz, Fujitsu Research Institute Sr. Economist.


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