Translate this page from English into :

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Indonesia has no many easy options for stemming the slide in the rupiah

A worker cleans the Bank Indonesia sign at
the central bank building in Jakarta, Aug. 5, 2008.
Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg News

Indonesia asked state companies to bring export proceeds home and will scrap a levy on overseas palm oil sales to boost the rupiah, after the currency plunged as much as 29 percent in the past month.

The government and the central bank will also buy bonds from the market to restore investor confidence, the government said in a statement in Jakarta last night. The rupiah, which fell as much as 8.7 percent yesterday before recovering, is up 0.9 percent against the dollar today. State companies will also have to report their dollar requirements and buy foreign- exchange through local banks.

Indonesia, the world's biggest palm-oil producer, wants to spur the currency from a seven-year low and bolster investor confidence that's been eroded as funds desert emerging markets amid the global credit crisis. Stocks in Jakarta have declined 59 percent this year, headed for their worst year on record, and the country's bonds have plunged.

Indonesia may also use currency-swap agreements with central banks in China, Japan and South Korea if needed, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said yesterday.

Indonesia will scrap the palm-oil levy to boost exports after the Trade Ministry on Oct. 24 cut the crude palm oil export-tax rate for November to 2.5 percent. Exporters pay tax on palm-oil shipments using a base price and a tax rate set by the trade ministry every month. Palm oil futures in Malaysia, which have fallen about 65 percent since March, gained for the first time in five days yesterday.

In 2005, the last time the rupiah plunged, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 4.25 percentage points in the five months to December to 12.75 percent, and the government more than doubled fuel prices to help boost the currency from a four- year low in August that year.

Indonesia, where 35 million people live on less than 60 cents a day, raised fuel prices in May by more than a quarter, the first increase in three years, to cut subsidies after crude oil hit a record $135.09 a barrel. The 2008 fuel subsidy budget amounts to 180.3 trillion rupiah ($16.7 billion).

Government Bonds Slide

The government is now considering lowering subsidized fuel prices after crude oil futures fell to the lowest since May 2007, with the contract for December delivery dropping 49 cents to $62.73 a barrel in New York yesterday.

Stockbrokers monitor share prices during morning trading
at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta October 13, 2008.
Indonesian shares slid over 5 percent on Monday after
a three-day trading halt as the government raised its guarantee
on bank deposits to help restore confidence in the economy
in the face of the global credit crisis.
REUTERS/Beawiharta (INDONESIA)

The Jakarta Composite index has plunged 61 percent after touching a record in January. Government bonds have dropped 17 percent, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc, the worst among 10 Asian nations. Overseas holdings of bonds have declined 11 percent to 94.91 trillion rupiah from a record in August.

``Government bonds were impacted by negative perception of a slowdown and as there's redemptions from bond holders who need to take back the cash to their own countries,'' Sri Mulyani said at a briefing in Jakarta late yesterday. ``We will buy back the bonds to show that the government and BI cares for the quality and price of the bonds.''

Boosting Rupiah Supply

The rupiah is declining even as the government said it expects the budget deficit to narrow to 1 percent of gross domestic product, from a previous forecast of 1.3 percent, on lower oil prices. Indonesia's economy is forecast by the government to expand between 5.5 percent and 6 percent next year.

A worker counts rupiah banknotes for a customer
at a money changer in Jakarta October 24, 2008. Indonesia's central bank
will always be in the market to support the rupiah,
Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono said on Friday, as the currency weakened
to its lowest level in nearly three years.
REUTERS/Enny Nuraheni (INDONESIA)

The central bank's move to ease reserve requirements earlier this month also helped boost the supply of rupiah and contributed to the currency's decline, central bank Governor Boediono said yesterday. The government needs to manage the excess liquidity, he said.

``The government and central bank are trying to do too many things at once with conflicting policy goals,'' said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, an economist in Sydney at Moody's Economy.com Inc. ``Over the longer term, I am optimistic about the rupiah. But things are so fluid at the moment that it is hard to know what will happen in the short run, with the risks still weighted to the downside.''

Foreign Reserves

Indonesia's central bank had $57.1 billion of reserves as of Sept. 26. The nation paid back its last loan from the IMF in 2005, four years ahead of schedule.

The Washington-based institution arranged a $25 billion package between 1997 and 2003 to help rescue Indonesia's banking system and rehabilitate the economy by restructuring private and government debt.

The Indonesian government also said yesterday it will allow imports of food and beverages, shoes and garments only by registered importers and through five sea ports and two airports.

State-owned companies won't be allowed to move deposits from one bank to another, in a bid to reduce competition among lenders, Sri Mulyani said.

Related Posts :
Sources :
Please Note!
This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer on the bottom for more information.

You are welcome to republish this article, or any portion thereof.
Please, cite the actual/original source. I would be grateful if you could link back.


Stumble Upon Toolbar Add to Technorati Favorites Bookmark and Share

No comments: