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Tuesday, December 9, 2008

BIS warns global lending collapse, ZIRP & monetary stimulus may come at a cost

According to the Telegraph, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns cross-border loans worldwide fell by $1.1 trillion (£740bn) in the first half of the year, reflecting the scramble by the financial industry to cut leverage by pulling credit lines and slashing risky exposure.

Foreign lending by UK banks fell by a staggering $884bn, equal to 81% of the entire contraction in international lending.

London as the epicenter of Europe's structured credit industry, has suffered a dramatic collapse and facing a double blow since worldwide issuance of bonds and securities has also gone into freefall, plummeting 77% from over a trillion dollars to $247bn in the third quarter.

In its quarterly report, the BIS warned the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and other central banks that near-zero interest rates and emergency monetary stimulus may come at a cost.

By opening the cash spigot, the authorities risk displacing the money markets and may "discourage banks from lending to other banks".

The money markets are a crucial lubricant for the financial system, but they cannot function if rates fall too low. The sector can wither away, as Japan discovered during its "Lost Decade".

The BIS also hinted that the European Central Bank and Sweden's Riksbank may have blundered by raising rates this year to contain the oil shock. It said short-term energy spikes have no lasting effect on inflation or wage deals.

"Evidence suggests an absence of strong second-round effects on inflation. The temporary inflationary impulse will soon drop out," it said.

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Sources :
    Telegraph: BIS warns of collapse in global lending, December 9, 2008 8:53AM GMT
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