Oct 8, 2008 - Market Wrap

From Bear Mountain Bull : Market Wrap

A pretty messy day, with the indices getting bounced around pretty good - down hard out of the gate, a quick turn back up, and then a reversal-of-the-reversal to head back down to those morning lows before turning back up going into the final hour - where we got a reversal-of-the-reversal-of-the-reversal that sold the Dow off about 300 points in the last 30-40 minutes.

Sigh.

Hey, but the Naz-100 was flat!! And the Transports too!! Ok, small victories. Really small.

Dow Industrials	9258.10	-189.01	-2.00%
S&P 500	984.94	-11.29	-1.13%
Nasdaq Comp.	1740.33	-14.55	-0.83%
Russell 2000	546.57	-12.38	-2.21%

NYSE Comp.	6306.35	-82.03	-1.28%
Nasdaq 100	1330.61	+0.63	+0.05%
Dow Transports	3902.32	+4.17	+0.11%
Dow Utilities	367.59	-9.10	-2.42%

Treasuries were sold off hard, and yields (on the long end) went higher:

6-month: 1.05%
2-yr: 1.63%
5-yr: 2.71%
10-yr: 3.71%
30-yr: 4.11%.

Internals were negative - again - but they were better than yesterday, on heavier volume. Advances/declines were 1 to 3 on the NYSE and 5 to 14 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume near 1 to 2 on both exchanges. How about 4 new highs to 3100 new lows - yikes! New highs/lows were 1/1949 on the NYSE and 3/1164 on the Nasdaq.

There were a few green groups today, the biggest, by far, being the gold and silver stocks (+17.2%), followed byt steel stocks (+3.6%), housing (+1.3%), metals (+1.2%) and oil services (+1.0%). Leading the losers were the brokers (-4.7%), insurance (-4.1%), airlines (-4.0%), HMOs (-3.8%), paper stocks (-3.7%), telecoms (-3.3%) and banks (-2.9%).

Energy prices fell slightly, with crude down to $88.95/barrel, gasoline to $2.04/gallon, and natural gas to $6.74/mmBTU. The dollar index also fell, dropping to 80.50. Gold and silver were higher, with spot gold up to $887/ounce and silver to $11.48/ounce.

BMB Note : You know things are bad when you breathe a sigh of relief that the Dow was down ONLY 189 points…

The market had a chance to try to reverse off the morning lows, but just couldn’t do it with any conviction, and gave it up again into the closing bell. Bonds had a lousy day and pushed yields higher, but it’s too early to say if that’s real meaningful or not - we’ve seen bonds get jostled around before without making any real progress either up or down.

We keep watching and looking, but we just don’t see much good happening at this point - and still no real indications of even a short-term low in place. No sense in letting those shields down - obviously this ’siege’ isn’t over.


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