- One of the few groups in the energy sector that didn't benefit from the huge runup in oil in the first half of 2008 was the refiners. As oil prices spiked, the refiners were unable to pass those same price increases on to the consumer. This squeezed margins, and earnings estimates (along with share prices) dropped significantly. This is why prices at the pump didn't double from $3/gallon to $6/gallon when oil doubled from $70 to $140.
Now, on the other hand, oil prices have declined from $140 to $70, but prices at the pump haven't been cut in half. This means the refiners are finally seeing an increase in their margins, and as shown in the chart below, earnings estimates for Valero (a key refiner) have spiked up quite a bit over the past two months. VLO's stock price has not spiked up over the past few months, however, so there may be an opportunity there.
Related Posts :
- 10/20/2008 - Upgrade & Downgrade
- 10/20/2008 - Long & Short Ideas for Tuesday
- 10/20/2008 - As Oil heading toward $50, Buy DUG
- Bespoke Investment Group: Refiners Finally Increase Margins, October 21, 2008 at 08:37 AM
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